​CHRIS ARCHER: TB  32 GS  194.2 IP  10-9  3.33 ERA  1.28 WHIP  173 K
​QP: ​Archer made significant strides this past season despite getting off to a horrific start in 2014, 8 GS [April 3rd - May 11th] but the peripherals @ the time suggested better things to come. ROS #'s [May 16th - September 26th] :  24 GS  149.1 IP  2.77 ERA  1.22 WHIP  8.26 K/9  &  45.5 GB%.  

JAKE ARRIETA: CHC  25 GS  156.2 IP  10-5  2.53 ERA  0.99 WHIP  167 K 
QP: Jake's FANTASTIC 2014 season! CTM's prognostication provided in the 2015 Starting Pitcher Index.

HOMER BAILEY: CIN*[DL]  23 GS  145.2 IP  9-5  3.71 ERA  1.23 WHIP  124 K
QP: CTM has become irrational when analyzing Homer & maybe 2014 was injury related but disappointing nonetheless.
The tear was found to be pretty small. "According to doc, (Bailey will) be able to start throwing by the end of December," trainer Paul Lessard said. "That's fairly normal for a pitcher."   -  Cincinnati Inquirer

MADISON BUMGARNER: SF  33 GS  18-10  2.98 ERA  1.09 WHIP  219 K
QP: Madison isn't going to win the 2014 National League CYA [CTM's 2014 SPI NL CYA] but he did set career highs in Wins, Innings Pitched & Strikeouts 
​[25.1 K% improving on 2013's 24.8 K%] while pitching his 2nd consecutive sub 3.00 ERA season. Interesting Home vs Road splits, a career reversal. 
Mad Bum did his best Road Warrior impersonation in 2014, 
Road #'s:  125.2 IP  2.22 ERA  0.99 WHIP  118 K  vs  19 BB  6.21 K/BB. 
​Bumgarner remains one of the consummate & secure investments in the Starting Pitcher Market for 2015 & beyond.

ANDREW CASHNER: SD  19 GS  123.1 IP  5-7  2.55 ERA  1.13 WHIP  93 K
QP: The only question CTM has with Cashner is can he hold up to the DEMANDS  of being a Starting Pitcher?

ALEX COBB: TB  27 GS  166.1 IP  10-9  2.87 ERA  1.14 WHIP  149 K
​QP: An Emerging Star! This ACE now headlines one of the best rotations in the game.  

GERRIT COLE: PIT  22 GS  138 IP  11-5  3.65 ERA  1.21  138 K 
​QP: 2014 didn't go according to plan for Cole but CTM's 2015 forecast remains very BULLISH! 2014 highlights:  24.2 K%  +  49.2 GB%  & late season run 8 GS [8/20-9/28]
  
JOHNNY CUETO: CIN  34 GS  243.2 IP  20-9  2.25 ERA  0.96 WHIP  242 K
QP: A healthy Cueto showcased his abilities in 2014, a remarkable season & CYA winning in a world without Kershaw.  

YU DARVISH: TEX*[DL]  22 GS  144.1 IP  10-7  3.06 ERA  1.26 WHIP  182 K
QP: Missing his opening day start was an ominous sign for Yu's 2014 season but being shut down with elbow inflammation is cause for concern. When healthy one of the best arms in the game. Darvish has been dominate pitching @ ​the Ballpark in Arlington [Globe Life] the past 2 seasons, no easy feat.
Yu Darvish (elbow) will return to the United States in November to undergo a follow-up MRI on his right elbow. If all goes well with that exam, Darvish is expected to resume his normal offseason throwing program. The All-Star right-hander was shut down for the season in mid-August due to inflammation in his pitching elbow. [10/17/14] - Rotoworld

JACOB deGROM: NYM  22 GS  140.1 IP  9-6  2.69 ERA  1.14 WHIP  144 K
QP: One of the biggest surprises of 2014. Montero not deGrom was suppose to be the exciting Mets prospect but performance + injuries led to opportunity & a Rookie of the YEAR campaign.

DOUG FISTER: WAS  25 GS  164 IP  16-6  2.41 ERA  1.08  WHIP  98 K
2014 SPI [#34]: Does Fister's addition to the Nationals give them the best Starting 4 in MLB? The move to the National League will accelerate a price increase but also the realiziation of pitching to his 3 year average as a 2014 projection, which would make any investor happy happy happy.
QP: What are your expectations for Fister in 2015? 2014 career year or the new normal pitching in the National East? CTM isn't buying Fister @ his expected inflated 2015 price. The rationale illustrated in the SPI.

GIO GONZALEZ: WAS  27 GS  158.2 IP  10-10  3.57 ERA  1.20 WHIP  162 K 
2014 SPI [#23]: ​2012 was probably Gio's career year but there's a consistency in his numbers & reliability is good thing. Set expectations circa  3.50 ERA   200 Innings Pitched   200 Strikeouts with double digit Wins. UPSIDE, apply his 3 year average.
QP: Gio pitched better then his surface stats indicate in 2014 but in many instances perception is reality, which should result in a depressed price come 2015.

SONNY GRAY: OAK  33 GS  219 IP  14-10  3.08 ERA  1.19 WHIP  183 K
QP: The soon to be 25 year old has impressed in his brief but successful career:  43 GS  283 IP  2.99 ERA  1.17 WHIP  55.3 GB% + 21.6 K%

ZACK GREINKE: LAD  32 GS  202.1 IP  17-8  2.71 ERA  1.15 WHIP  207 K
QP: ​Greinke loves LA! Winning over 50% of his GS since joining the Dodgers [60 GS  32-12  2.68 ERA  &  1.134 WHIP  380 IP] & we haven't even mentioned his HOME stats or utter domination of  NL West opponents.

COLE HAMELS: PHI  30 GS  204.2 IP  9-9  2.46 ERA  1.15 WHIP  198 K
QP: This CTM favorite was coming off a strong post ASB run in 2013. Shoulder concerns dampened Cole's 2014 outlook but he quickly shook off the rust upon his return and recorded his 5th consecutive season of 200+ IP & a career best ERA. Philadelphia Freedom? Will the Phillies trade their ACE & unrivaled trade chip this offseason?

MATT HARVEY: NYM*[TJS]
QP: All reports have been positive on Harvey's rehab so far. The Franchise excited everyone in his final throwing session, a 3 inning sim game @ ​Citi Field on September 15th, Harvey was impressive, his fastball hitting 95 mph & throwing his full arsenal with the exception of the slider. It's always risky with players returning from TJS but something else in Harvey's favor is when he reports to camp it will be 16 months since his surgery, as per the Boras group their research indicates that to be a significant milestone for pitchers in their recovery from this procedure.

FELIX HERNANDEZ: SEA  34 GS  236 IP  15-6  2.14 ERA  0.915 WHIP  248 K
QP: All Hail the King!!! Felix was among the Leaderboard in multiple pitching categories as usual but 2014 should provide him with additional hardware his 2nd American League CYA.

HISASHI IWAKUMA: SEA  28 GS  179 IP  15-9  3.52 ERA  1.05 WHIP  154 K
​QP: Deconstructing Iwakuma's late season IMPLOSION [August 24th - Sept 26th] 7 GS  3-3  32 IP  7.88 ERA  +  3.54 BABIP  54% LOB  25% HR/FB 
 vs [May 3rd - August 19th]  21 GS  12-6  147 IP  2.57 ERA  .272 BABIP  81.2 LOB%  10.9% HR/FB

​​CLAYTON KERSHAW: LAD  27 GS  198.1 IP  21-3  1.77 ERA  0.86 WHIP  239 K 
QP: The modern day Koufax, the 2nd coming of  The Left Arm of God.

COREY KLUBER: CLE  34 GS  235.2 IP  18-9   2.44 ERA  1.09 WHIP  269 K
QP: ​If you drank the Kluber Kool*Aid you were handsomely rewarded. 2014 wasn't a breakout season, it was a CY Young caliber season & more. How good was Kluber's 2014 season? Since 1984 Corey is only 1 of 8 Starting Pitchers to post [ERA <=2.50, FIP <=2.50, WHIP <=1.10 and SO >=250]  in a single season. Dating back to 1901 a total of 22 Starting Pitchers have qualified for this accomplishment.

MAT LATOS: CIN*[?]  16 GS  102.1 IP  5-5  3.25 ERA  1.15 WHIP  74 K
QP: A lost year for Latos. CTM had big expectations for him heading into 2014 but Mat didn't debut til June & was shut down in September.
Reds manager Bryan Price said Tuesday that he expects Latos (elbow) to be fine for spring training, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports. (9/24/2014)   - RotoWire

CLIFF LEE: PHI*[DL]  13 GS  81.1 IP  4-5  3.65 ERA  1.38 WHIP  72 K
2014 SPI [#3]: The model of consistency, 2008-2013 has produced a 6 year avg of 14-8 2.89 ERA 1.086 WHIP 222 IP & 200 K's, last 3 years in Philly even better.. At some point skills will decline with age but until that happens we'll keep riding this HORSE.
​QP:The model of consistency is now a question mark heading into 2015. "Lee was shut down in late-July due to the recurrence of a flexor pronator strain in his left elbow. The veteran southpaw was treated with platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injection and will not require surgery. He'll begin a throwing program in November and the hope is that he'll be ready for spring training​"   - MLBBlogs.com

JON LESTER: OAK*[FA]  32 GS  219.2 IP  16-11  2.46 ERA  1.10 WHIP 220 K
QP: Timing is everything & Free Agency couldn't have come @ a better time for Big Jon. 
Since July 3rd 2013: [BOS & OAK]  48 GS  325.2 IP  2.60 ERA  2.85 FIP  3.34 xFIP  &  1.145 WHIP
​​
DAVID PRICE: DET  34 GS  248.1 IP  15-12  3.26 ERA  1.08 WHIP  271 K
QP: ​Price is the definition of a THOROUGHBRED, co-leader in GS + MLB leader Inning Pitched, Strikeouts & Hits. Price will now Anchor a once vaunted rotation in Detroit that has many questions entering the 2015 season.

GARRETT RICHARDS: LAA*[DL]  26 GS  168.2 IP  2.61 ERA 13-4  1.04 WHIP  164 K
2014 SPI [#82]: CTM is targeting Richards as a back end option & think in deeper formats he could turn a profit. Can he build off his 2013 2nd half? Encouraging signs & low cost have us intrigued.
QP: Only a freak & gruesome injury [torn patellar tendon] could derail this hard throwing pitchers breakout season. A long road to recovery lies ahead, 6-9 month timetable leaves Opening Day in doubt. Richards progression can be measured by leaps & bounds in 2014, which CTM will highlight in the 2015 SPI.

TYSON ROSS: SD  31 GS  195.2 IP  13-14  2.81 ERA  1.21 WHIP  195 K  
QP: The Petco Prodigy.

HYUN-JIN RYU: LAD  26 GS  152 IP  14-7  3.38 ERA  1.19 WHIP  139 K
QP: Multiple DL stints because of shoulder soreness masked a statistically sound season for Ryu.

DANNY SALAZAR: CLE  20 GS  110 IP  6-8  4.25 ERA  1.38 WHIP  120 K
2014 SPI [#30]: Chicks dig the fastball & Salazar brings it! While secondary pitches are still work in progress his fastball continues to overmatch MLB hitters. Further development of his craft will only raise his already lofty ceiling. UPSIDE PLAY worth your investment.
QP: CTM Whiffed on Salazar in 2014 but is Doubling Down in 2015.

CHRIS SALE: CHW  26 GS 174 IP 12-4  2.17 ERA  0.97 WHIP  208 K     
QP: Sale isn't going to win the 2014 American League CYA [CTM's 2014 SPI AL CYA] but is arguably the #2 Starting Pitcher in MLB. 

JEFF SAMARDZIJA: OAK  33 GS  219.2  7-13  2.99 ERA  1.07 WHIP  202 K
2014 SPI [#31]: The former Golden Domer's 2013 didn't live up to expectations. Entering his 3rd season as Starting Pitcher, CTM's forecast remains high & peripherals reaffirm our belief. Is 2014 the year he transforms from thrower to pitcher? Buying opportunity here.
QP: The Land Shark made the transformation in 2014 & now resides in a spacious home park.

ANIBAL SANCHEZ: DET*[?]  21 GS  126 IP  8-5  3.43 ERA  1.10 WHIP  102 K
QP: Talented but often injured. 

MAX SCHERZER: DET*[FA]  33 GS  220.1 IP  18-5  3.15 ERA  1.18 WHIP  252 K
QP: Scherzer's 2014 numbers were pretty much inline with his 2013 American League CYA winning season, further dissection provided in the 2015 SPI. 

JAMES SHIELDS: KC*[FA]  34 GS  227 IP  14-8  3.21 ERA  1.18 WHIP  180 K
QP: ​Big Game James does it again, never flashy but always solid & very dependable [8 consecutive seasons of at least 200+ IP & 30+ GS].

DREW SMYLY: TB  25 GS  153 IP  9-10  3.24 ERA  1.16 WHIP  133 K
QP: Smyly moves from Comerica Park to Tropicana Field as the key piece in the David Price trade. CTM envisions being heavily invested in this talented lefty for the 2015 season.

STEPHEN STRASBURG: WAS  34 GS  215 IP  14-11  3.14 ERA  1.12 WHIP  242 K 
QP: ​On the surface [great expectations] 2014 might seem like a disappointing campaign for Strasburg but many of the indicators tell a different story. CTM's initial 2015 NL CYA.

MARCUS STROMAN: TOR  20 GS  130.2 IP  11-6  3.65 ERA  1.17 WHIP  111 K
QP: The future ACE of the Blue Jays & the future is now. 

​MASAHIRO TANAKA: NYY*[?]  20 GS  136.1 IP  13-5  2.77 ERA  1.06 WHIP  141 K
​QP: Phenomenal debut over his first three months [April 4th - June 28th] prior to being diagnosed in July with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament. Tanaka surprisingly returned in September but remains a HUGE question mark this offseason.

JULIO TEHERAN: ATL  33 GS  221 IP  14-13  2.89 ERA  1.08 WHIP  186 K
QP: ​Teheran has quickly become a favorite to watch compete every 5th day. Julio doesn't own elite strikeout skills, out pitches his advanced metrics but is a Talented Starting Pitcher with mound presence. Owner of some interesting Home vs Road Splits.

YORDANO VENTURA: KC  30 GS  183 IP  14-10  3.20 ERA  1.30 WHIP  159 K
QP: Ventura's ROOKIE season was successful of many levels. 

MICHAEL WACHA: STL*[?]  19 GS  107 IP  5-6  3.20 ERA  1.20 WHIP  94 K
QP: ​Wacha's season was derailed with a shoulder injury but was as advertised over his first 15 GS of 2014. Wacha's status remains sketchy & will need to be monitored this offseason.
Wacha missed a large chunk of the season with a stress reaction in the shoulder, but the Cardinals were encouraged by how the MRI looked. "Even the doctors were a little surprised on how that looked," general manager John Mozeliak said. It's good news for Wacha heading into the offseason, but he remains a medical red flag for 2015 since it's an issue that can crop up again.  [10/20/14] - MLB.com via Rotoworld

ADAM WAINWRIGHT: STL  32 GS  227 IP  20-9  2.38 ERA  1.03 WHIP  179 K 
QP: CTM did have slight reservations heading into 2014 [#8 SPI] with Wainwright's workload from 2013 just 2 yrs removed from his 2nd TJS but Adam delivered another
CYA caliber season, 2015 outlook???
Adam Wainwright had his right elbow examined Friday and everything checked out "optimistically."That's what Cardinals GM John Mozeliak told the media at his end-of-season press conference Monday at Busch Stadium, adding that Wainwright "should have a normal offseason." Waino had one good start but two bad starts during the playoffs and there was talk of his elbow acting up. But that discomfort likely had more to do with heavy usage than anything ligament-related or structural.
[10/20/14] -Derrick Goold on Twitter via Rotoworld

ZACK WHEELER: NYM  32 GS  185.1 IP  11-11  3.54 ERA  1.33 WHIP  187 K
QP: CTM is very excited for Zack's Future & is extremely anxious to illuminate his player profile in the 2015 SPI. 

ALEX WOOD: ATL  24 GS  171.2 IP  11-11  2.78 ERA  1.14 WHIP  170 K
2014 SPI [#63]: The Wood is burning up. His stock is getting bid up on his promising 2013 2nd half. Be cautiously optimistic, young arm with an unorthodox delivery bit Braves know how to handle pitchers. Is he guaranteed a rotation spot? Many believe his future will be in the pen but CTM is betting on him as Starting Pitcher in 2014. 
​QP: CTM bet on Wood's TALENT winning out & performance + injuries created the opportunity needed for him to showcase his abilities.
    
JORDAN ZIMMERMANN: WAS  32 GS  199.2 IP  14-5  2.66 ERA  1.07 WHIP  182 K 
2014 SPI [#24]: Strikeouts is the missing piece to his game & it's not for lack of skill or repertoire. Zimmermann is a control pitcher with an increasing Ground Ball Rate who can strikeout hitters but pitches to contact. A spike in K's would catapult his stock, if not use 3 year average to gauge expectations.  
​​​QP: Zimmermann's spike in K's resulted in career high strikeout total 182, jump in K/9  6.79 ^ 8.20  +  rise in K%  18.6 ​

HENDERSON ALVAREZ: MIA  27 GS  187 IP  12-7  2.65 ERA  1.24 WHIP  111 K
QP: One of the biggest beneficiaries from that blockbuster trade between Toronto & Miami. Marlins Park vs Rogers Centre, NL East vs AL East + the maturation of a young Starting Pitcher. Henderson's 2014 #'s pitching @ Marlins Park :  90 IP  1.60 ERA  1.01 WHIP   56.2 GB%  

​CARLOS CARRASCO: CLE  14 GS  134 IP  8-7  2.55 ERA  0.99 WHIP  140 K
​QP: Carrasco took full advantage of his opportunity when placed back into Cleveland's rotation on Aug 10th. A run of 10 GS [8/10 - 9/27] with SUPERB statistics,  84.6 LOB% aided the cause but superb nonetheless. An interesting case study for 2015.

RA DICKEY: TOR  34 GS  215.2 IP  14-13  3.71 ERA  1.23 WHIP  173 K
​QP: The magical 2012 CYA winning season seems like a lifetime ago. Dickey's 2 years in Toronto:  68 GS   28-26  3.97 ERA  440.1 IP  350 K's  1.223 WHIP

​DANNY DUFFY: KC  25 GS  149.1 IP  9-12  2.53  1.11 WHIP  113 K 
2014 SPI [#84]: It was great to see Duffy back on the mound in 2013 but it was short lived as he returned to the DL with "a very mild flexor strain". If HEALTHY he's a lottery ticket worth purchasing. CTM is very FOND of Duffy & you gotta be in it to win it.
QP: Duffy's disastrous Spring Training took him off the radar but the lottery ticket paid off once inserted into the Royals rotation. 

NATHAN EOVALDI: MIA  33 GS  199.2 IP  6-14  4.37 ERA  1.33 WHIP  142 K
QP: CTM believes Eovaldi lives too much in the zone. In 22 of 33 GS Nate walked 1 or none & only 3 times walked more than 2 batters in a game. No one questions Eovaldi's velocity, turns only 25 this coming Feburary & pitches in a great home park + life in the NL East can be very profitable for Starting Pitchers.

JOSE FERNANDEZ: MIA*[TJS]  8 GS  51.2 IP  4-2  2.44 ERA  0.95 WHIP  70 K
QP: Fernandez going down with TJS was a sad day for baseball. Godspeed!
"
The ball is coming out of my hand incredible," Fernandez said. "I’m just excited to get a ball in my hand and let it go again." Fernandez added that he has "never felt this good ever." It's surely some hyperbole from an excited young pitcher who is finally allowed to throw again, but Fernandez's rehab certainly appears to be coming along well. He'll remain on a Monday-Wednesday-Friday throwing schedule for a while before eventually progressing to a mound. The Marlins aren't expecting to get Fernandez back until around midseason.  (10/3/14) - Miami Herald

MIKE FIERS: MIL  10 GS  71.2 IP  6-5  2.13 ERA 0.88 WHIP  76 K
QP: CTM took a flier on Fiers back in early July when Estrada's rotation spot was inevitabely to become available. Unfortunately Jimmy Nelson was tabbed & Fiers set free. Fiers was inserted into Milwaukee's rotation on August 9th & never looked back. 

YOVANI GALLARDO: MIL  32 GS  192.1 IP  8-11  3.51 ERA  1.29  146 K
2014 SPI [#74]: Yovani's stock is plummeting but will his new price level provide a profit? The 2nd half provides some encouragement but without strikeouts [K% 18.6 + K/9 7.17] makes him a very dicey proprosition. Something to monitor this Spring was it inury related or eroding skills.
​QP: Did you gambled on Gallardo? All things considered it was a successful season for Yovani. Yes, declining strikeouts but GB% remained circa 50%. A back end of the rotation option but someone CTM will probably avoid again in 2015.

MATT GARZA: MIL  27 GS  163.1 IP  8-8  3.64 ERA  1.18 ERA  126 K
QP: Animated & angry best describe Garza & his antics on the mound.

KEVIN GAUSMAN: BAL  20 GS  113.1 IP  7-7  3.57 ERA  1.31 WHIP  88 K
​QP: Is 2015 the year for this ballyhooed Orioles pitcher? 

SHANE GREENE: NYY  14 GS  78.1 IP  5-4  3.78 ERA  1.40 WHIP  81 K 
QP: An Emerging Market? CTM thinks so,  23.5 K% + 50.2 GB% is a nice foundation + skills weren't LUCK based.
 ​
​JESSE HAHN: SD  12 GS  73.1 IP  7-4  3.07 ERA  1.21 WHIP  70 K
​QP: Hahn's 2014 audition as a Starting Pitcher has CTM intrigued are you? 

​JASON HAMMEL: OAK*[FA]  29 GS  176.1 IP  10-11  3.47 ERA  1.12 WHIP  158 K
QP: Hammel will be highly sort after in the Free Agent Market this offseason but CTM does have reservations heading into 2015.

DEREK HOLLAND: TEX  5 GS  37 IP  2-0  1.46 ERA  1.05 WHIP  25 K
QP: A Silver Lining in the Rangers injury ravaged season.

TJ HOUSE: CLE 18 GS  102 IP  5-3  3.35 ERA  1.32 WHIP  80 K
QP: Sneaky good 2014 season, fueled by 60.9 GB% + 2.96 SIERA

​PHIL HUGHES: MIN  32 GS  209.2  16-10  3.52 ERA  1.13 ERA  186 K
QP: CTM was not riding the Hughes bandwagon to Minnesota. A detailed deconstruction of this 2014 season & a recalibration for 2015 is needed here.

DREW HUTCHISON: TOR  32 GS  184.2 IP  11-13  4.48 ERA  1.26 WHIP  184 K
QP: Still young & there is UPSiDE here.

SCOTT KAZMIR: OAK  32 GS  190.1 IP  15-9  3.55 ERA  1.16 WHIP  164 K
QP: An interesting case study, breaking bad Kazmir's post ASB #'s. 

IAN KENNEDY: SD  33 GS  201 IP  13-13  3.63 ERA  1.29 WHIP  207 K
2014 SPI [#73]: 2011 was the outlier & Kennedy will attempt to reestablish himself pitching in Petco. CTM thinks he's a better pitcher then what he has shown but RESULTS are necessary to prove this theory.
​QP: Kennedy's 2014 results reestablished & revived his status in Starting Pitcher Market but is he in the circle of trust?

DALLAS KEUCHEL: HOU  29 GS  200 IP  12-9  2.93 ERA  1.18 WHIP  146 K
QP: The ground ball machine posted an astounding 63.5 GB% & reached the 200 IP plateau with solid peripherals.

​JOHN LACKEY: STL  31 GS  198 IP  14-10  3.82 ERA  1.28 WHIP  164 K
2014 SPI [#79]: The 2013 version of Lackey was one of the better stories of the year & played a big part in the Red Sox resurgence. When Lester lost it & Buchholz went down in the 1st half it was Lackey who Anchored the staff. Can he give an encore performance in 2014?
QP: CTM thought the Lackey love heading into 2014 was a bit much. Use his 2013+2014 average as your guide, UPSiDE sub 3.50 ERA.

MIKE LEAKE: CIN  33 GS  214.1 IP  11-13  3.70 ERA  1.25 WHIP  164 K 
QP: CTM does have love for Leake & is CTM's preferred option when filling out a rotation.

FRANCISCO LIRIANO: PIT*[FA]  29 GS  162.1 IP  7-10  3.38 ERA  1.30 WHIP  175 K
QP: The 2014 season embodied the Jekyll & Hyde Starting Pitcher that is Liriano. Francisco's Pre & Post ASB #'s are opposite ends of the spectrum.  

KYLE LOHSE: MIL  31 GS  198.1 IP  13-9  3.54 ERA  1.15 WHIP  141 K
​QP: Lohse is routinely solid but accentuates Milwaukee's problem, they have no true ACE.

LANCE LYNN: STL  33 GS  203.2 IP  15-10  2.74 ERA  1.26 WHIP  181 K
2014 SPI [#67]: Look @ Lynn's 2 year average,  logs the innings, gets strikeouts & puts up wins but until he gets lefthanders out we'll be wanting more. That said everthings relative to where he goes in drafts & what your expectations are. If he returns his 2 year average you should be a satisified customer.
QP: Thru the looking glass, Lynn's 2 year average 2012+2013:  31 GS  189 IP  16-8  3.88 ERA  1.316 WHIP  189 K

BRANDON McCARTHY: NYY*[FA]  32 GS  200 IP  10-15  4.05 ERA  1.28 WHIP  175 K
QP: Escape to New York. CTM believes McCarthy's 2015 prognosis should be based on his NY #'s & the rebirth of the Cutter.

​COLLIN MCHUGH: HOU  25 GS  154.2 IP  11-9  2.73 ERA  1.02 WHIP  157 K
QP: Collin McWho? McHugh's metamorphosis will be examined in the 2015 SPI.

KRIS MEDLEN: ATL*[TJS]
QP: CTM was targeting Medlen as a high-end #2 Starting Pitcher in 2014 but alas he fell victim to another TJS [2nd of his career].

SHELBY MILLER: STL  31 GS  183 IP  10-9  3.74  1.27 WHIP  127 K
2014 SPI [#25]: It was finally Miller Time in 2013 & it was worth the wait. Looked to have tired down the strecth & rumors of possible sore shoulder could explain him going MIA in the Post Season. Is Shelby the forgotten man in STL? Don't sleep on Miller Time in 2014 it should be a very profitable one .
QP: Miller time fell flat on his face in 2014. A 2nd half resurgence [July 26th - Sept 23th]? Not really, do these #'s inspire confidence:  12 GS  73 IP  2.96 ERA  4.17 FIP  3.93 xFIP  
6.66 K/9  .208 BABIP  80.4 LOB%. Shelby is still young enough & talented but proceed judiciously. 

MIKE MINOR: ATL*[?]  25 GS  145.1 IP  6-12  4.77 ERA  1.44 WHIP  120 K
QP: Urethra surgery & shoulder soreness delayed & ultimately destroyed Minor's 2014 season? 

JIMMY NELSON: MIL  12 GS  69.1 IP  2-9  4.93 ERA  1.46 WHIP  57 K
QP: Don't let Nelson's 2014 #'s deter you in 2015.

JON NIESE: NYM  30 GS  187.2 IP  9-11  3.40 ERA  1.27 WHIP  138 K
QP: Niese is a credible MLB Starting Pitcher who excels when pitching @ Citi Field.

JAKE ODORIZZI: TB  31 GS  168 IP  11-13  4.13 ERA  1.28 WHIP  174 K
QP: CTM is a fan of Odorizzi but there are 2 Jakes to consider, Home vs Road Splits are ridiculous.

​JAMES PAXTON: SEA  13 GS  74 IP  6-4  3.04 ERA  1.20 WHIP  59 K
QP: An EXCITING arm for 2015.

WILY PERALTA: MIL  32 GS  198.2 IP  17-11  3.53 ERA  1.30 WHIP  154 K
QP: Peralta's 2014 season can be summed up in 2 words, profitable pitcher. 

MICHAEL PINEDA: NYY  13 GS  76.1 IP  5-5  1.89 ERA  0.83 WHIP  59 K
QP: With or without Pine Tar Pineda pitched extremely effective when on the bump.

DREW POMERANZ: OAK  10 GS  69 IP  5-4  2.35 ERA  1.12 WHIP  64 K
QP: Pomeranz punched a chair & lost in 2014. CTM will be actively buying up shares of Pomeranz in the 2015 Starting Pitcher Market.

​RICK PORCELLO: DET  31 GS  204.2 IP  15-13  3.43 ERA  1.23 WHIP  129 K
QP: Porcello continued his progression in 2014 but what is his true UPSiDE?

JOSE QUINTANA: CHW  32 GS  200.1 IP  9-11  3.32 ERA  1.24 WHIP  178 K
2014 SPI [#68]: Quintana is proving that he can pitch in the big league but is still an under the radar guy who's cost effective price screams profitability. Value play that should be on your radar, substance over style.
QP: Quintana has progressed each year as a pitcher & 2014 continued that trend & solidified his status in the Starting Pitcher Market. 

TANNER ROARK: WAS  31 GS  198.2  15-10  2.85 ERA  1.09 WHIP  138 K
QP: Is Tanner Roark the BEST #5 Starting Pitcher in baseball? CTM probably will once again own zero shares of Roark in 2015 but is that prudent?

MATT SHOEMAKER: LAA  20 GS  136 IP  16-4  3.04 ERA  1.07 WHIP  124 K
QP: Shoemaker wasn't even on the Angels radar but was a major contributor in their 2014 success.

CHRIS TILLMAN: BAL  34 GS  207.1 IP  13-6  3.34 ERA  1.23 WHIP  150 K
2014 SPI [#72]: Tillman' stock in 2013 was heavily tied to his win total. He is a good pitcher but nothing really excites us. CTM will usually take the upside guy over him but that’s not always prudent.
​QP: CTM was seemingly on point with the Tillman diagnosis & then Tillman rode the Post ASB tide [7/18 - 9/26] posting these #'s:  14 GS  6-1  2.33  89 IP  +  .253 BABIP  82.9 LOB% but CTM will reiterate the 2014 analysis for 2015.

JUSTIN VERLANDER: DET  32 GS  206 IP  15-12  4.54 ERA  1.40 WHIP  159 K
​​QP: Where have you gone Justin Verlander? 

​TAIJUAN WALKER: SEA  5 GS  38 IP  2-3  2.61 ERA  1.29 WHIP  34 K
​​QP: 2014 the year that wasn't for Walker. Taijuan will pitch in the Arizona Fall League & CTM hopes to observe this Uber prospect in action later this month when in Arizona.

​JERED WEAVER: LAA  34 GS  213.1 IP  18-9  3.59 ERA  1.21 WHIP  169 K
QP: Weaver keeps on trucking. No longer an Elite Starting Pitching option but an effective one.​​​​

​CHASE ANDERSON: ARI  21 GS  114.1 IP  9-7  4.01 ERA  1.37 WHIP  105 K  
QP: Impressive Changeup.

MARK APPEL: HOU   GS   IP     ERA   WHIP   K 

TREVOR BAUER: CLE  26 GS  153 IP  5-8  4.18  1.38 WHIP  143 K  
QP: Buying Bauer in 2015?

ARCHIE BRADLEY: LAD   GS   IP     ERA   WHIP   K
 
CLAY BUCHHOLZ: BOS  28 GS  170.1 IP  8-11  5.34 ERA  1.39 WHIP  132 K  
QP: An ATROCIOUS 2014 season.

MARK BUEHRLE: TOR  32 GS  202 IP  3.39 ERA  1.36 WHIP  119 K
QP: Breaking down Buehrle's season, the before & after: April 2nd - June 29th  2.50 ERA  .293 BABIP  81.1 LOB%  vs  July 5th - Sept 24th  4.57 ERA  3.54 BABIP  68.5 GB%

DYLAN BUNDY: BAL   GS   IP     ERA   WHIP   K
 
AJ BURNETT: PHI*[RET?]   34 GS  213.2 IP  8-18  4.59 ERA  1.41 WHIP  190 K
QP: For a Few More Dollars! AJ leaving Pittsburgh was a disastrous decision. 

MATT CAIN: SF *[INJ]  15 GS  90.1 IP  4.18 ERA  1.25 WHIP  70 K

JESSE CHAVEZ: OAK  21 GS  146 IP  8-8  3.45 ERA  1.31 WHIP  136 K
QP: The HYBRID, with Lester & Hammel likey gone via free agency Chavez & Pomeranz should round out the A's rotation as currently stated. 

WEI-YIN CHEN: BAL  31 GS  185.2 IP  16-6  3.54 ERA  1.23 WHIP  136 K
QP: CTM views Chen's 2014 as his UPSiDE but is a serviceable arm who shouldn't destroy your ratios.

TONY CINGRANI: CIN  11 GS  63.1 IP  2-8  4.55 ERA  1.53 WHIP  61 K
QP: CTM swung & missed on Cingrani in 2014 but still believes in the TALENT & remains on the radar for 2015.

AJ COLE: WAS   GS   IP     ERA   WHIP   K

JOSH COLLMENTER:  ARI  28 GS  179.1 IP  11-9  3.46 ERA  1.13 WHIP  115 K  
QP: Josh was Arizona's best Starting Pitcher in 2014 but that was Collmenter's Ceiling.

​BARTOLO COLON: NYM  31 GS  202.1  15-13  4.09 ERA  1.23 WHIP  151 K
QP: The very definition of an innings filler who reached the 200 IP plateau for the 1st time since 2005. 4 year avg [2011-2014]  28 GS  13-10  177 IP  3.54 ERA  &  1.221 WHIP

PATRICK CORBIN: ARI*[TJS]
QP: A "GUY" CTM really liked for the 2014 season but another victim of TJS.
"It was an exciting day of five minutes," Corbin said. "It honestly felt like nothing." That qualifies as good news. The D'Backs plan to bring the left-hander along slowly, as manager Kirk Gibson said last month that he's not expecting Corbin back until June. (9/10/14) - Arizona Republic
 

JARRED COSART: MIA  30 GS  180.1 IP  13-11  3.69 ERA  1.36 WHIP  115 K
​QP: ​The Marlins traded their 2013 1st pick Colin Moran #6 overall for Cosart. Jarred's 2 months in Miami [8/1 -  9/26]:  10 GS  4-4  64 IP  2.39 ERA  3.32 FIP  3.96 xFIP  50.0 GB%

CJ EDWARDS: CHC   GS   IP     ERA   WHIP   K
 
ROENIS ELIAS: SEA *[DL]  29 GS  163.2 IP  10-12  3.85 ERA  1.31 WHIP  143 K
​QP: An auspicious post ASB trend of allowing 2 ER or less over his last 10 GS [50.2 IP  15 R  13 ER  2.31 ERA] was halted due to a a strained left flexor bundle in his elbow. 
​​
MARCO ESTRADA: MIL  18 GS  150.2 IP  7-6  4.36 ERA  1.20 WHIP  127 K
QP: Estrada took a BIG step back not forward in 2014.

SCOTT FELDMAN: HOU  29 GS  180.1 IP  8-12  3.74 ERA  1.30 WHIP 107 K 
QP: Cubs nation loves him, his trade to Baltimore in 2013 brought Arrieta to the North Side of Chicago.

DILLON GEE: NYM  22 GS  137.1 IP  7-8  4.00 ERA  1.25 WHIP  94 K  
​QP: If CTM had to project a line for Gee, his 2014 #'s would be pretty spot on & lineup with Dillon's 4 year avg [2011-2014].

MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ: HOU  0 GS  18.2 IP  5.30 ERA  1.61 WHIP  14 K 
Live arm who throws in upper 90's, role undecided but name to keep on radar.

KYLE GIBSON: MIN  31 GS  179.1  13-12  4.47 ERA  1.31 WHIP  107 K
QP: The former 1st rd draft pick, 22nd overall 2009 draft had the 8th highest GB% 54.4 & only Buchholz, Eovaldi & Haren had lower strand rate than Gibson's 66.3%. Strikeouts? Gibson finished with the 4th worst K/9 @ 5.37 edging out Alvarez, Feldman & Buehrle in this category [min 162 IP: GB%, LOB% & K/9].

TYLER GLASNOW: PIT   GS   IP     ERA   WHIP   K

MARCO GONZALES: STL  5 GS  34.2 IP  4.15 ERA  1.53 WHIP  31 K
Rotation vs Bullpen will dictate his relevance.

MIGUEL GONZALEZ: BAL  26 GS  159 IP  10-9  3.23 ERA  1.30 WHIP  111 K
​QP: For some reason a name that intrigues CTM but limited skills with ugly advanced metrics.

AJ HAPP: TOR *[TRADED TO SEA]   GS   IP     ERA   WHIP   K

AARON HARANG: ATL*[FA]  33 GS  204.1 IP  12-12  3.57 ERA  1.40 WHIP  161 K
QP: Harang was Heroic for Atlanta in the early stages of 2014 but did pitched surprisingly effective over the course of the season, with the exception of June & August. 
CTM is NOT advocating Harang for 2015 just stating the facts.

DAN HAREN: LAD  32 GS  186 IP  13-11  4.02 ERA  1.18 WHIP  145 K
QP: Time to say goodbye. Haren's #s since 2012, 3 teams [LAA, WAS & LAD]:  92 GS  532.1 IP  35-38  4.33 ERA  &  1.234 WHIP

ANDREW HEANEY: MIA   GS   IP     ERA   WHIP   K

JEREMY HELLICKSON: TB  13 GS  63.2 IP  1-5  4.52 ERA  1.45 WHIP  54 K
QP: The warning signs for Hellboy have always been there, FIP, xFIP & SIERA have been above 4 in every category throughout his career. Also doesn't strikeout or induce enough ground balls. The weak link of a rotation that CTM is fawning over for 2015.

KYLE HENDRICKS: CHC  13 GS  80.1 IP  7-2  2.46 ERA  1.08 WHIP  47 K
QP: A bright spot for the Cubs in 2014 but 2015 & beyond?

TIM HUDSON: SF  31 GS  189.1  9-13  3.57 ERA  1.23 WHIP  120 K
QP: A back end option when filling out your rotation in deep leagues.
​​
UBALDO JIMENEZ: BAL  22 GS  125.1 IP  6-9  4.81 ERA  1.52 WHIP  116 K
QP: The Orioles paid Ubaldo $50 million this past February. In August they removed him from the rotation & in October they left him off the ALCS roster.

JOE KELLY: BOS​  17 GS  96.1 IP  6-4  4.20 ERA  1.35 WHIP  66 K
QP: Mid 90's Velocity & 54.9 GB% keeps him interesting.

TOM KOEHLER: MIA  32 GS  191.1 IP  10-10  3.81 ERA  1.30 WHIP  153 K
​QP: One word defines Koehler's season, Improvement.

HIROKI KURODA: NYY*[RET?]  32 GS  199 IP  11-9  3.71 ERA  1.14 WHIP  150 K
QP: All signs point to retirement.

TIM LINCECUM: SF*[FA]  26 GS  155.2  12-9  4.74 ERA  1.39 WHIP 134 K
QP: The former 2 time NL CYA #'s over his last 3 season [2012-2014]:  91 GS  32-38  539.1 IP  4.76 ERA  1.391 WHIP​. 

JEFF LOCKE: PIT  21 GS  131.1 IP  7-6  3.91 ERA  1.27 WHIP  89 K
QP: Locke has proved the last 2 years that he's a short term fix & long term flare-up.
 ​
CARLOS MARTINEZ: STL  7 GS  2-4  89.1  4.03 ERA  1.41 WHIP  84 K
QP: Don't go chasing waterfalls? Martinez owns stark RH vs LH Splits & has an undetermined role for 2015 but CTM will always SPECULATE on TALENT.

ALEX MEYER: MIN   GS   IP     ERA   WHIP   K
​​
WADE MILEY: ARI  33 GS 201.1  IP  8-12  4.34 ERA  1.40 WHIP  183 K
QP: A better pitcher than his #'s indicate.
​​
RAFAEL MONTERO: NYM  8 GS  44.1 IP  1-3  4.06 ERA  1.51 WHIP  42 K
QP: A name to know in 2015?

CHARLIE MORTON: PIT*[DL]  26 GS  157.1 IP  6-12  3.72  1.27 WHIP  126 K
QP: A serviceable starter when healthy.

BUD NORRIS: BAL  28 GS  165.1 IP  15-8  3.65 ERA  1.22 WHIP 139 K
QP: The Orioles would've gladly have taken these #'s from Ubaldo.

IVAN NOVA: NYY*[TJS] 4 GS  20.2 IP  2-2  8.27 ERA  1.84 WHIP  12 K
QP: Another TJS victim in 2014.

VIDAL NUNO: ARI  28 GS  161.2 IP  2-12  4.56 ERA  1.26 WHIP  129 K
QP: The term "crafty or soft tossing lefty" is NOT very endearing to CTM.

JAKE PEAVY: SF  32 GS  158 IP  7-13  3.73 ERA  1.28 WHIP  158 K
QP: Peavy's #'s with SF [7/27 - 9/27]:  12 GS  6-4  78.2 IP  2.17 ERA  3.03 FIP  4.01 xFIP  & 1.042 WHIP. CTM hopes Peavy exercises his player option & remains in SF pitching home games @​ AT&T Park under the tutelage of former manager Bruce Bochy [SD]. 

MARTIN PEREZ: TEX*[TJS]  8GS  51.1 IP  4-3  4.38 ERA  1.34 WHIP  35 K 
QP: The Texas Rangers injury ravaged season included Perez having TJS. 

YUSMEIRO PETIT: SF  12 GS  117  5-5  3.69 ERA  1.02 WHIP  133 K
QP: In 2014 he set the MLB record for consecutive batters retired @ 47.

CC SABATHIA: NYY*[DL]  8 GS  46 IP  3-4  5.28 ERA  1.48 WHIP  48 K 
QP: Can Captain Crunch make a comeback in 2015?

AARON SANCHEZ: TOR   GS   IP     ERA   WHIP   K 

​ERVIN SANTANA: ATL  31 GS  196 IP  14-10  3.95 ERA  1.31 WHIP  179 K
2014 SPI [#78]: Santana is a much better Major Leaguer than Fantasy Player. Employ his 3 year average for a 2014 projection & use 2011 or 2013 as his UPSIDE & 2012 as DOWNSIDE.
QP: Big Erv did pitch better then numbers would indicate but CTM still doesn't see the UPSiDE of rostering him other then as a back of the rotation starter.

ALFREDO SIMON: CIN  32 GS  196.1 IP  15-10  3.44 ERA  1.21 WHIP 127 K
QP: Simon made the 2014 NL All-Star team, pre ASB  2.70 ERA, aided by  .232 BABIP &  85.1 LOB%. As expected he came back to earth post ASB  4.52 ERA  .309 BABIP & 69.6 LOB%.

NOAH SYNDERGAARD: NYM   GS   IP     ERA   WHIP   K 

​JACOB TURNER: CHC​  18 GS  113 IP  6-11  6.13 ERA  1.60 WHIP  71 K
QP: CTM isn't writing off Turner just yet.

​JASON VARGAS: KC ​ 30 GS  187 IP  11-10  3.71 ERA  1.27 WHIP  128 K
​QP: Back of the rotation innings filler in deep leagues guy with zero UPSiDE.
​​
EDISON VOLQUEZ: PIT*[FA]  31 GS  192.2 IP  13-7  3.04 ERA  1.23 WHIP  140 K
QP: Regardless of what Edison's peripherals state, 2014 was a solid season. Ray Searage is cementing himself as one of the games best pitching coaches. That said CTM doesn't envision rostering Volquez in 2015.

TSUYOSHI WADA: CHC  13 GS  69.1 IP  4-4  3.25 ERA 1.24 WHIP  57 K
QP: Wada pitched well for the pitching starved Cubs in 2014.

​CJ WILSON: LAA  31 GS  175.2 IP  13-10  4.51 ERA  1.45 WHIP  151 K
2014 SPI [#42]: Since becoming a Starting Pitcher in 2010 CJ has pitched to an ERA over 3.39 once [2012 3.83 ERA & the 2nd half  5.54 ERA was injury related]. Is this something you might be interested in? [2010-2013] 4 year average  34 GS  210 IP  184 K's &  3.37 ERA. 
QP: Simply stated CJ was a BUST in 2014.

​TRAVIS WOOD: CHC  31 GS  173.2 IP  8-13  5.03 ERA  1.53 WHIP  146 K
​QP: Replacement level pitcher.

CHRIS YOUNG: SEA  ​29 GS  165.0 IP  12-9  3.65 ERA  1.23 WHIP  108 K
QP: The Phantom Menace.​

Missives From The Mound: Top Thirty Starting Pitchers ASB Edition

July 12th 2016                                                                                                                                                                                         


The 2016 baseball season has surpassed the halfway point and the All-Star break has arrived. This mid-season top thirty starting pitchers edition of Missives from the Mound offers the philosophical approach of is the glass half empty or half full?  

Once proven and secure investments have disappointed or landed on the disabled list. This is highlighted by the ineffectiveness of last season’s American League Cy Young Award finalists (Dallas Keuchel, David Price & Sonny Gray) and their 4.80. 4.34 and 5.16 ERA respectively. And over in the National League, runner-up (Zack Greinke) and third place finisher (Clayton Kershaw) are both currently sidelined with injuries.

I still believe in playing the long game and letting the talent win out, especially in the marathon season that is baseball but my confidence is shaken. The starting pitching market is in crisis. 

I mentioned last month how earned run averages for starting pitchers over the last three seasons have continued their upward trend up. Remember the era of the pitcher? Well, this season home runs are leaving the yard at an historic pace and Earned Run Averages are aggressively ascending north.

So, before proceeding, let’s examine the current landscape and the league averages for starting pitchers.

• Major League Baseball:
4.36 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 20.2 K%, 12.4 K-BB% & 1.22 HR/9

• American League:
4.51 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 19.6 K%, 11.8 K-BB% & 1.31 HR/9

• National League:
4.21 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 20.8 K%, 13.0 K-BB% & 1.13 HR/9

1.Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers - Kershaw. There is no substitute 

2.Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants - The rock you build your rotation on, 1300.2 IP and 2.93 ERA over his illustrious career. 

3.Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals - In the 2016 SPI Quick Pitch Preview, I stated last season I swung and missed on Strasburg but the process was precise. Stephen should be among the NL CYA finalist at seasons end this time around.

4. Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals - Life is Good, 2.88 ERA, 0.93 31.5 K% and 15.2 SWK% in 356.1 IP since returning to the National League.

5.Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs - I fully expect the reigning NL CYA winner to make the necessary corrections and get back on track post ALL-Star Break but his last trio of starts have culminated in 16.1 IP, 21 H, 15 R, 15 ER, 4 HR, 8 BB, 14 K and 8.27 ERA.

6.Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox - Over the last calendar year (July 6th 2015 - July 8th 2016) the lanky lefty from the South Side of Chicago has made 34 GS with a record of 21-10 and 3.63 ERA over 230.1 IP. 

7.Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins - The inevitable innings limit still looms but I’m not straying from my preseason analysis, Even with an inning cap this phenomenal pitcher is worthy of his premium price tag, think Chris Sale 2014. - 2016 SPI

8.Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets - I am worried about Thor’s status going forward and hence his drop in my rankings but the talent outweighs my concerns.

9.Jacob deGrom, New York Mets - There were questions early on in the season about deGrom’s velocity but that has been quelled with his fastball velo sitting at 94 mph, over his last 9 GS Jacob has struck out 68 batters in 57.0 IP with 30.0 K%.

10.Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants - This workhorse was the perfect free agent acquisition and provides the Giants with an excellent 1-2 punch in their rotation. Also of note, Cueto is 8-0 on the road with 2.51 ERA and 5-1 at home with 2.43 ERA this season.

11.Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs - Big Jon had 2.03 ERA over 16 GS in 106.1 IP when the the month of June ended, his ERA after 4.1 IP in July now sits at 3.01 on the season.

12.Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians - Kluber has average 229 IP and 257 K in his previous two seasons and his 2.95 FIP and 25.1 K% keeps him among the game’s aces.

13.Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians - An injury halted Carrasco season but he’s back and my expectations remain extremely high with this talented arm post ASB.

14.David Price, Boston Red Sox - This premium offseason asset has allowed 60 ER in 124.IP but does have career highs in both 27.1 K% and 12.9 SWK%, I have no hesitations going to war with this horse in the second half.

15.Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians - Salazar has been a stud this season, his 2.75 ERA is 2nd best in the American League. The Indians are blessed with three top of the rotation arms and health is their only hurdle.

16.Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates - If we are being honest, Cole was disappointing before his injury but there is hope for his return sooner than later. The Pirates ace is critical to their second run and playoff push going forward.

17.Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks - Greinke’s H/A Splits, Home: 5-3, 60.2 IP, 43 K, 5.04 ERA and 1.35 WHIP versus Away: 5-0, 48.2 IP, 48 K, 1.85 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Hopes of Zack returning immediately after the break have been squashed and there is no timetable currently.

18.Carlos Martinez, St.Louis Cardinals - I was extremely high on Martinez entering the season and ranked him as the 21st starting pitcher overall. Carlos enters the break with 2.85 ERA and 1.16 WHIP and it’s my belief the best is yet to come from this immensely talented pitcher.

19.Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees - Tanaka has been one of the most effective starting pitcher’s in the American League and definitely warrants a top twenty ranking overall.

20.Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers - Since arriving in Texas via trade last season, Hamels has started 30 games and is 16-3 with 3.40 ERA as a member of the Rangers. Cole does have interesting home versus road splits but where would this team be without him?

21.Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox - This overlooked lefty, has pitched 606.2 IP and posted 3.40 ERA, 3.27 FIP and 1.24 WHIP over his last three seasons. Quintana has been consistently solid and under appreciated throughout his career.

22.Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers - He said he was close in early May and JV has delivered over his last dozen game starts with 3.05 ERA 1.00 WHIP and 26.4 K%, the curse of Kate is dead and buried.

23.Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves - If you are still questioning Teheran’s credentials then you haven’t been paying attention. Since September 4th 2015, Julio has impressed 24 GS, 157.2 IP, 139 K, 41 BB, 2.63 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.

24.Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros - The reigning American League Cy Young Award winner has been one of the biggest busts in the first half of 2016 but I’m buying a bigger and better version of Dallas post All-Star break.

25.Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays - This season’s expectations have gone array for Archer but an an examination into his H/A splits is telling. At the Trop 9 GS, 1-6, 56.2 IP, 73 K, 2.70 ERA and 1.18 WHIP versus on the Road 10 GS, 3-6, 53 IP, 57 K, 6.75 ERA and 1.71 WHIP.

26.Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs - Kyle over the last calendar year has made 33 GS, 3.15 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 23.3 K% and 16.4 K-BB% is the under the radar arm in the Cubs rotation.

27.Rich Hill, Oakland Athletics - I had no idea what to expect from this pitcher entering this season but since last September Rich Hill has been simply stated excellent when on the bump.

28.Lance McCullers, Houston Astros - If McCullers can cut down on the free passes, a big second half awaits. In 32 career game starts Lance has pitched 182.2 innings, striking out 201 batters with 3.40 ERA.

29.Drew Pomeranz, San Diego Padres - Pomeranz won a rotation spot this Spring and that move has paid major dividends. Drew is not a product of Petco, he’s actually pitched better away from his home Park this season.

30A.Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays - This Jays pitcher has become a personal favorite of mine and excelling in the American League East just adds to his street cred but an inning limits barrier looms large with an expected move to the bullpen at some point in the second half.

30B.Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals - Duffy has delivered since being inserted to the Royals rotation, his dominance has held steady with 73 strikeouts and 28.9 K% in 62.3 innings. Danny has kept his control in check posting 4.7 BB% and 1.02 WHIP over his 11 GS.

Enjoy the break and best of luck rest of the season!

2015 CTM BASEBALL STARTING PITCHER INDEX QUICK PITCH PREVIEW  

​STARTING PITCHER PROFILES​ WITH STATISTICAL ANALYSIS & RANKINGS THE BLUE BOOK EDITION MARCH ​17

 2016 CTM BASEBALL STARTING PITCHER INDEX QUICK PITCH PREVIEW  

 2016 CTM BASEBALL STARTING PITCHER INDEX 2016

 2016 CTM BASEBALL STARTING PITCHER INDEX 2016  

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STARTING PITCHER PROFILES​ WITH STATISTICAL ANALYSIS & RANKINGS THE BLUE BOOK EDITION MARCH ​17

 CTM BASEBALL STARTING PITCHER INDEX

STARTING PITCHER PROFILES WITH STATISTICAL ANALYSIS & RANKINGS FROM BLUE CHIPS TO EMERGING MARKETS AND EVEN THE OBSCURE


BRETT ANDERSON: LAD  31 GS  10-9  180.1 IP  116 K  3.69 ERA  3.94 FIP  3.51 xFIP  1.33 WHIP  15.5 K%  9.3 K-BB%  66.3 GB%

Mister Anderson led Major League Baseball in Ground Ball Percentage and had the third highest Home Run to Fly Ball Ratio @ 17.0% among qualified starting pitchers. The fragile southpaw surprisingly and somewhat shockingly made 31 game starts while totaling 180 innings pitched in 2015.


CHASE ANDERSON: ARI  27 GS  6-6  152.2 IP  111 K  4.30 ERA  4.14 FIP  4.17 xFIP  1.30 WHIP  17.3 K%  11.1 K-BB%  42.0 GB%


Chase and his changeup still offer the possibility and potential for profitability in deep leagues for 2016.


CODY ANDERSON: CLE  15 GS  7-3  91.1 IP  44 K  3.05 ERA  4.27 FIP  4.58 xFIP  1.11 WHIP  12.1 K%  5.5 K-BB%  45.9 GB%


Cody pitched admirably over his 15 game starts for the Tribe last season but his lack of swing and miss stuff combined with an unsustainable .237 BABIP plus an extremely high 78.3 LOB% have him off our radar for 2016.


CHRIS ARCHER: TBR  34 GS  12-13  212.0 IP  252 K  3.23 ERA  2.90 FIP  3.01 xFIP  1.14 WHIP  29.0 K%  21.4 K-BB%  46.1 GB% 


  • April 6th - June 28th:  17 GS  9-5  109.0 IP  133 K  2.31 ERA  2.51 FIP  2.49 xFIP  0.95 WHIP  31.2 K%  25.4 K-BB%  49.0 GB%

​​

  • July 3rd - October 3rd:   17 GS  3-8  103.0 IP  119 K  4.19 ERA  3.31 FIP  3.55 xFIP  1.33 WHIP  26.9 K%  17.7 K-BB%  43.3 GB%


​CTM was a believer in Archer entering last season and the perfect storm mentioned in the 2015 SPI came to fruition, despite his second half hiccup we remain bullish with this talent for 2016 and beyond.



JAKE ARRIETA: CHC  33 GS  22-6  229.0 IP  236 K  1.77 ERA  2.35 FIP  2.61 xFIP  0.86 WHIP  27.1 K%  21.6 K-BB%  56.2 GB%


  • 2014:  25 GS  10-5  156.2 IP  167 K  2.53 ERA  2.26 FIP  2.73 xFIP  0.99 WHIP  27.2 K%  20.5 K-BB%  49.2 GB%


  • 2014 & 2015: 58 GS  32-11  385.2 IP  403 K  2.08 ERA  2.31 FIP  2.66 xFIP  0.92 WHIP  27.2 K%  21.2 K-BB%  53.3 GB%

If you missed out on Arrieta in 2014 then 2015 is probably your last chance to get him at these prices. - March 17th Edition of 2015 SPI
 

MANNY BANUELOSATL  6 GS  1-4  26.1 IP  19 K  5.13 ERA  5.37 FIP  5.14 xFIP  1.59 WHIP  15.7 K%  5.8 K-BB%  40.2 GB%


Acquired in one of the many trades that brought an army of young arms to Atlanta in President of Baseball Operations John Hart's rebuilding process. Banuelos was shut down in September and underwent a procedure to remove a bone spur but avoided his second Tommy John Surgery keeping him in the mix as a possible candidate for the Braves 2016 rotation. 

CHRIS BASSITT: OAK  13 GS  1-8  86.0 IP  64 K  3.56 ERA  3.76 FIP  4.50 xFIP  1.26 WHIP  17.7 K%  9.4 K-BB%  44.5 GB%


Bassitt proved to be a nice plug and play option once inserted the A's rotation but faltered late in his final few starts. 


TREVOR BAUER: CLE  30 GS  11-12  176.0 IP  170 K  4.55 ERA  4.33 FIP  4.28 xFIP  1.31 WHIP  22.9 K%  12.2 K-BB%  39.2 GB%


The starting pitcher who moonlights as a rapper, 2015 season could be summed up by these lyrics riding high in April, shot down in May...


  • April 9th - 28th:  4 GS  2-0  25.0 IP  15 H  5 R  5 ER  1 HR  13 BB  28 K  1.80 ERA  2.97 FIP  3.75 xFIP  1.12 WHIP


  • May 3rd - Oct 1st:  26 GS  9-12  151.0 IP  137 H  85 R  84 ER  22 HR  66 BB  142 K  5.01 ERA  4.56 FIP  4.36 xFIP  1.43 WHIP

The term post hype sleeper was all the rage regarding Bauer in April but Trevor's season deteriorated as the calendar continued on.


MIKE BOLSINGER: LAD  21 GS  6-6  109.1 IP  98 K  3.62 ERA  3.91 FIP  3.82 xFIP  1.36 WHIP  21.0 K%  11.4 K-BB%  53.1 GB%


Bolsinger's 2015 campaign was a tale of two halves, with an extremely impressive first half that was followed up by a disappointing second half which resulted in a demotion after the Dodgers acquired Latos and Wood.


  • PRE-ASB:  13 GS  4-3  73.0 IP  69 K  3.08 ERA  2.85 FIP  3.28 xFIP  1.25 WHIP  23.2 K%  14.8 K-BB%  58.6 GB%


  • POST-ASB:  8 GS  2-3 36.1 IP  29 K  4.71 ERA  6.05 FIP  4.90 xFIP  1.60 WHIP  17.3 K%  5.4 K-BB%  43.2 GB%
    ​​

ARCHIE BRADLEY: KCR  8 GS  2-3  35.2 IP  23 K  5.80 ERA  4.96 FIP  5.15 xFIP  1.63 WHIP  14.3 K%  0.6 K-BB%  58.0 GB%


The Diamondbacks prized pitching prospect only started 8 games in 2015 as his season was derailed by shoulder soreness. Of note, Bradley was struck in the face by a Carlos Gonzalez line drive in game start number four and was placed on the 15-day disabled list. Archie returned on May 16th but to disastrous results before being shut down on June 4th.


  • First 4 Starts:  2-0  20.0 IP  9 H  4 R  4 ER  11 BB  14 K  1.80 ERA  3.53 FIP  4.71 xFIP  1.00 WHIP  18.2 K%  3.9 K-BB%  60.0 GB%


  • Last 4 Starts:  0-3  15.2 IP  27 H  19 R  19 ER  11 BB  9 K  10.91 ERA  6.77 FIP  5.70 xFIP  2.43 WHIP  10.7 K%  -2.4 K-BB%  56.5 GB%


DAVID BUCHANAN: PHI  15 GS  2-9  74.2 IP  44 K  6.99 ERA  5.33 FIP  4.74 xFIP  1.85 WHIP  12.5 K%  4.3 K-BB%  47.4 GB%


This Philadelphia Phillies pitcher was every DFS player's favorite starting pitcher and the gift that kept on giving in 2015. 


  • 2015 Highlights:  74.2 IP  109 H  60 R  58 ER  12 HR  29 BB  44 K 

MARK BUEHRLE: TOR  32 GS  15-8  198.2 IP  91 K  3.81 ERA  4.26 FIP  4.46 xFIP  1.24 WHIP  11.0 K%  7.0 K-BB%  45.9 GB%


  • 2011-2015 Average:  32 GS  13-10  202.0 IP  217 H  93 R  84 ER  22 HR  43 BB  117 K  3.74 ERA  4.04 FIP  1.29 WHIP  


I used Buehrle's 5 year average because his stat line is typically automatic. Since 2001 he has posted an ERA greater than 3.89 only 3 times, started at least 30 games a season and 2015 was his first sub 200 IP, he finished with 198.2 IP. That was the good and now for the bad, more hits then innings pitched, a nonexistent strikeout rate and a soon to be 37 year old pitcher. Buehrle offers zero upside with an abundance of downside but always seems to find his way onto a fantasy roster over the course of a season.


MADISON BUMGARNER: SFG  32 GS  18-9  218.1 IP  234 K  2.93 ERA  2.87 FIP  3.02 xFIP  1.01 WHIP  26.9 K%  22.4 K-BB%  41.7 GB%


CTM has been Mad for Bumgarner, in 2014 he was our National League Cy Young preseason selection and in 2015 he remained among the elite starters in our rankings.  


2015 Quick Pitch Preview Rewind: Bumgarner remains one of the consummate & secure investments in the Starting Pitcher Market for 2015 & beyond.


Some will be scared off by last years Innings Pitched, I consdider that a buying opportunity. - March 17th Edition of 2015 SPI​​


Wash, Rinse and Repeat.


  • 2013:  31 GS  13-9  201.1 IP  199 K  2.77 ERA  3.05 FIP  3.32 xFIP  1.03 WHIP  24.8 K%  17.1 K-BB%  46.8 GB%


  • 2014:  33 GS  18-10  217.1 IP  219 K  2.98 ERA  3.05 FIP  2.99 xFIP  1.09 WHIP  25.1 K%  20.2 K-BB%  44.4 GB%

  • 2015:  32 GS  18-9  218.1 IP  234 K  2.93 ERA  2.87 FIP  3.02 xFIP  1.01 WHIP  26.9 K%  22.4 K-BB%  41.7 GB%

MATT CAIN: SFG  11 GS  2-4  60.2 IP  41 K  5.79 ERA  5.54 FIP  4.94 xFIP  1.50 WHIP  15.1 K%  7.8 K-BB%  35.8 GB%


Cain always out pitched his metrics during his best days but that was a lifetime ago. Injuries have taken their toll as Matt has only pitched 151 innings over the past two seasons. The Giants righty recently turned 31 years young.


CARLOS CARRASCO: CLE  30 GS  14-12  183.2 IP  216 K  3.63 ERA  2.84 FIP  2.66 xFIP  1.07 WHIP  29.6 K%  23.7 K-BB%  51.2 GB%


This Indians starting pitcher will be heavily targeted by CTM in all auctions and drafts that he participates in for the upcoming draft season. There are a plethora of indicators and metrics that reinforce Carrasco's forecast as a high-end arm to own, in-depth analysis provided in the 2016 Starting Pitcher Index.


ANDREW CASHNER: SDP  29 GS  13-8  189.1 IP  188 K  2.71 ERA  3.05 FIP  3.24 xFIP  1.02 WHIP  24.9 K%  20.0 K-BB%  46.0 GB%


Simply stated, Cashner got crushed by lefties in 2015. This underwhelming Padres did register the 5th highest BABIP and ranked dead last in LOB% among qualified starting pitchers. 


JESSE CHAVEZ: OAK  26 GS  7-15  157.0 IP  136 K  4.18 ERA  3.85 FIP  3.89 xFIP  1.35 WHIP  20.2 K%  13.1 K-BB%  43.1 GB%


A useful arm in Oakland who's game went south in the second half with the help of .333 BABIP  69.7 LOB%  &  18.2 HR/FB Post ASB. 


  • April 23rd - July 9th:  15 GS  4-9  94.0 IP  75 K  3.64 ERA  3.44 FIP  3.91 xFIP  1.24 WHIP  19.3 K%  12.9 K-BB%  42.5 GB%


  •  July 19th - September 11th:  11 GS  3-6  56.1 IP  5.59 ERA  4.82 FIP  3.95 xFIP  1.58 WHIP  20.3 K%  11.7 K-BB%  45.3 GB%


​Update: Chavez was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays on November 20th for Liam Hendriks.

WEI-YIN CHEN: BAL  31 GS  11-8  191.1 IP  153 K  3.34 ERA  4.16 FIP  4.01 xFIP  1.22 WHIP  19.3 K%  14.1 K-BB%  40.5 GB%


Chen has consistently out pitched his indicators.


  • 2012:  32 GS  12-11  192.2 IP  154 K  4.02 ERA  4.42 FIP  4.34 xFIP


  • 2013:  23 GS  7-7  137.0 IP  104 K  4.07 ERA  4.04 FIP  4.14 xFIP   


  • 2014:  31 GS  16-6  185.2 IP  136 K  3.54 ERA  3.89 FIP  3.75 xFIP  


  • 2015:  31 GS  11-8  191.1 IP  153 K  3.34 ERA  4.16 FIP  4.01 xFIP     


ALEX COBBTBR  


Cobb's ETA for 2016 is circa the All-Star Break. 

GERRIT COLE: PIT  32 GS  19-8  208.0 IP  202 K  2.60 ERA  2.66 FIP  3.16 xFIP  1.09 WHIP​  24.3 K%  19.0 K-BB%  48.0 GB% 


Next step, Infinity and beyond?


ALEX COLOME: TBR  13 GS  8-5  109.2 IP  88 K  3.94 ERA  3.55 FIP  4.05 xFIP  1.30 WHIP  19.3 K%  12.5 K-BB%  40.1 GB%


  • SP stats:  69.0 IP  44 K  4.70 ERA  4.64 FIP  4.59 xFIP  1.41 WHIP  15.0 K%  6.8 K-BB%  40.7 GB%


  • RP stats:  40.2 IP  44 K  2.66 ERA  1.71 FIP  3.12 xFIP  1.13 WHIP  27.0 K%  22.7 K-BB%  38.9 GB%

​ 

BARTOLO COLON: NYM  31 GS  14-13  194.2 IP  136 K  4.16 ERA  3.84 FIP  3.94 xFIP  1.24 WHIP  16.7 K%  13.7 K-BB%  42.3 GB%


At age 42, the big guy registered his third consecutive season of 30+ GS & 190.0+ IP.


CHI CHI GONZALEZ: TEX  10 GS  4-6  67.0 IP  30 K  3.90 ERA  4.97 FIP  5.26 xFIP  1.21 WHIP  10.7 K%  -0.7 K-BB%  48.6 GB%

CTM wanted no part of Chi Chi last season and his stat line as a starter wasn't pretty.


  • 60.1 IP  28 K  4.03 ERA  4.82 FIP  5.12 xFIP  1.24 WHIP  11.0 K%  0.0 K-BB%  49.2 GB%  69.0 LOB%  .221 BABIP


PATRICK CORBIN: ARI  16 GS  6-5  85.0 IP  78 K  3.60 ERA  3.35 FIP  3.27 xFIP  1.27 WHIP  21.9 K%  17.1 K-BB%  46.9 GB%


Corbin's return from Tommy John surgery was a success and is an intriguing arm heading into next season.

 

JARRED COSART: MIA  13 GS  2-5  69.2 IP  47 K  4.52 ERA  5.12 FIP  4.46 xFIP  1.38 WHIP  15.9 K%  4.7 K-BB%  55.5 GB%


CTM envisioned Cosart as an appealing endgame play last year but that didn't work out. Fact versus fluke, Jarred's ground ball percentage of 55.5% is real, while his 17.5% home run to fly ball percentage was fluky. The real issue here is a nonexistent strikeout rate combined with his lack of control. 

JOHNNY CUETO: CIN-KCR  32 GS  11-13  212.0 IP  176 K  3.44 ERA  3.53 FIP  3.78 xFIP  1.13 WHIP  20.3 K%  15.0 K-BB%  42.5 GB%


Cueto is an interesting case study and we will dissect and deliver answers in the 2016 SPI, the obvious as well as the obscure. 


Update: Cueto signs with the San Francisco Giants for 6 years & $130M.


YU DARVISH: TEX


Darvish started throwing in August and has an ETA circa the month of May for 2016.


JACOB deGROM: NYM  30 GS  14-8  191.0 IP  205 K  2.54 ERA  2.70 FIP  2.92 xFIP  0.98 WHIP  27.3 K%  22.2 K-BB%  44.4 GB%


Money, it's gotta be the hair! deGrom ascended to ace status in 2015 and performed heroically in the playoffs. 


JORGE DE LA ROSA: COL  26 GS  9-7  149.0 IP  134 K  4.17 ERA  4.19 FIP  3.84 xFIP  1.36 WHIP  21.1 K%  10.9 K-BB%  52.0 GB%


Those who like living dangerously roster Rockies pitchers. Here is Jorge's statistics pitching at Coors over the last three seasons.


  • 2013 @ Coors:  81.2 IP  56 K  2.76 ERA  3.07 FIP  3.70 xFIP  16.3 K%  9.6 K-BB%  47.7 GB%  .324 BABIP  80.7 LOB%


  • 2014 @ Coors:  90.2 IP  64 K  3.08 ERA  4.00 FIP  3.74 xFIP  17.7 K%  9.7 K-BB%  53.1 GB%  .252 BABIP  76.6 LOB%

  • 2015 @ Coors:  63.1 IP  56 K  5.40 ERA  4.59 FIP  3.95 xFIP  23.9 K%  12.0 K-BB%  48.3 GB%  .329 BABIP  69.4 LOB%


RUBBY DE LA ROSA: ARI  32 GS  14-9  188.2 IP  150 K  4.67 ERA  4.81 FIP  4.10 xFIP  1.36 WHIP  18.5 K%  10.7 K-BB%  49.1 GB%


Rubby will remain on CTM's radar heading into 2016, he finished tied with Taijuan Walker for the 11th highest fastball velo among qualified starting pitchers @ ​94.3 mph. De La Rosa turns 27 in March and is now with his third (LAD, BOS & ARI) organization. 

Career Statistics:  76 G  60 GS  363.0 IP  290 K  4.51 ERA  4.55 FIP  4.05 xFIP  18.6 K%  10.1 K-BB%  47.7 GB%  14.5 HR/FB%

  • SP stats 2011: 10 GS  55.2 IP  55 K  3.88 ERA  4.07 FIP  3.64 xFIP  23.3 K%  10.6 K-BB%  48.3 GB%  14.0 HR/FB% 


  • SP stats 2014: 18 GS  100.0 IP  70 K  4.50 ERA  4.40 FIP  4.12 xFIP  16.1 K%  8.1 K-BB%  45.8 GB%  11.7 HR/FB%


  • SP stats 2015: 32 GS  188.2 IP  150 K  4.67 ERA  4.81 FIP  4.10 xFIP  18.5 K%  10.7 K-BB%  49.1 GB%  16.8 HR/FB%

ANTHONY DESCLAFANI: CIN  31 GS  9-13  184.2 IP  151 K  4.05 ERA  3.67 FIP  3.97 xFIP  1.35 WHIP  19.2 K%  12.2 K-BB%  45.1 GB%


DeSclafani's surface stats are not impressive but further investigation shows a skillful starting pitcher. In-depth analysis in the 2016 SPI.

RA DICKEY: TOR  33 GS  11-11  214.1 IP  126 K  3.91 ERA  4.48 FIP  4.72 xFIP  1.19 WHIP  14.3 K%  7.3 K-BB%  41.9 GB%


  • Post ASB:  15 GS  8-1  99.2  56 K  2.80 ERA  3.66 FIP  4.46 xFIP  1.00 WHIP  14.4 K%  10.0 K-BB%  40.6 GB%  .245 BABIP  76.3 LOB%  6.4 HR/FB


  • TOR 2013-2015:  101 GS  39-37  654.2 IP  476 K  3.95 ERA  100 ERA+  4.46 FIP  1.22 WHIP  6.5 K/9  2.31 K/BB


TYLER DUFFEY: MIN  10 GS  5-1  58.0 IP  53 K  3.10 ERA  3.24 FIP  3.64 xFIP  1.31 WHIP  21.9 K%  13.6 K-BB%  49.7 GB%


If Duffey develops the change as his third pitch then good things lie ahead. His curve is the whiff pitch, with above average swing and miss percentage.


PITCH DATA:  FB%  58.1 (90.2)  CB%  39.8 (78.8)  CH%  2.1 (83.9)


  • August:  21.0 IP  20 K  4.29 ERA  4.66 FIP  4.35 xFIP  1.62 WHIP  21.3 K%  9.6 K-BB%  41.9 GB%  .333 BABIP  80.5 LOB%  13.6 HR/FB


  • Sept & Oct:  37.0 IP  33 K  2.43 ERA  2.43 FIP  3.24 xFIP  1.14 WHIP  22.3 K%  16.2 K-BB%  54.4 GB%  .305 BABIP  78.8 LOB%  3.4 HR/FB


DANNY DUFFY: KCR  24 GS  7-8  136.2 IP  102 K  4.08 ERA  4.48 FIP  4.64 xFIP  1.39 WHIP  17.4 K%  8.3 K-BB%  38.8 GB%


Duffy turns 27 next month and arm injuries along with inconsistencies have stifled his once budding future. He seems destined to thrive in the bullpen.

NATHAN EOVALDI: NYY  27 GS  14-3  154.1 IP  121 K  4.20 ERA  3.42 FIP  3.81 xFIP  1.45 WHIP  18.0 K%  10.7 K-BB%  52.2 GB%


Three strikes and your out? Will this be the year CTM finally stops chasing Eovaldi in the endgame? His fastball ranked 3rd @  96.7 among starting pitchers (non-qualified & qualified) and his .337 BABIP was the 2nd highest in MLB (minimum 150 IP). Lastly, Nate recorded his 1st season with a ground ball percentage north of 50%, posting a 52.2 GB% in 2015.


MARCO ESTRADA: TOR  28 GS  13-8  181.0 IP  131 K  3.13 ERA  4.40 FIP  4.93 xFIP  1.04 WHIP  18.1 K%  10.5 K-BB%  32.2 GB%


Magic Marco? Estrada excelled in Toronto. Yes, against all odds the former Brewer allowed 1.05 HR/9 and 7.8 HR/FB pitching @ Rogers Centre. 


If you believe the cutter has transformed Marco, then ignore the following obvious 2015 stats (1) .216 BABIP  (2) 79.2 LOB% (3) 4.40 FIP (4) 4.93 xFIP (5) 4.64 SIERA


​Update: Estrada has signed a two year $26 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, to reiterate 2015 was a best case scenario and regression is coming.  


CTM's early forecast for 2016:  176 IP  11-9  140 K  4.06 ERA  1.25 WHIP *12/13/15

JOSE FERNANDEZ: MIA  11 GS  6-1  64.2 IP  79 K  2.92 ERA  2.24 FIP  2.62 xFIP  1.16 WHIP  29.8 K%  24.5 K-BB%  40.1 GB%


The return of Superman.

MIKE FIERS: MIL-HOU  30 GS  7-10  180.1 IP  180 K  3.69 ERA  4.03 FIP  4.04 xFIP  1.25 WHIP  23.7 K%  15.2 K-BB%  37.6 GB%


Expectations are everything and when forecasting Fiers that should've been factored in because it was priced in to his auction and draft values last year.


Fiers is not a frontline starter but could be a valuable contributor when constructing a rotation, especially if command and control improves to previous levels.   


  • 2014:  14 G  10 GS  71.2 IP  76 K  2.13 ERA  2.99 FIP  3.15 xFIP  0.88 WHIP  27.7 K%  21.5 K-BB%  .224 BABIP  82.7 LOB%  8.4 HR/FB


  • 2015:  31 G  30 GS  180.1 IP  180 K  3.69 ERA  4.03 FIP  4.04 xFIP  1.25 WHIP  23.7 K%  15.2 K-BB%  .283 BABIP  75.1 LOB%  11.3 HR/FB  


BRANDON FINNEGAN: KCR-CIN  4 GS  5-2  48.0 IP  45 K  3.56 ERA  4.80 FIP  3.77 xFIP  1.21 WHIP  22.8 K%  12.2 K-BB%  54.3 GB%


The Reds acquired a trio of lefties (Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb and Cody Reed) from Kansas City in the Johnny Cueto sweepstakes. Finnegan will be given every opportunity to evolve into a major league starting pitcher but this former first round pick might be best suited for the bullpen.

DOUG FISTER: WAS  15 GS  5-7  103.0 IP  63 K  4.19 ERA  4.55 FIP  4.46 xFIP  1.40 WHIP  14.0 K%  8.7 K-BB%  44.6 GB%


As the poster child for regression entering last season, Fister did not disappoint in 2015. 


  • 2014:  25  GS  16-6  164.0 IP  98 K  2.41 ERA  3.93 FIP  3.85 xFIP  1.08 WHIP  14.8 K%  11.2 K-BB%  48.9 GB%  .262 BABIP  83.1 LOB%  10.1 HR/FB


YOVANI GALLARDO: TEX  33 GS  13-11  184.1 IP  121 K  3.42 ERA  4.00 FIP  4.31 xFIP  1.42 WHIP  15.3 K%  6.7 K-BB%  49.3 GB%


Yovani 2.0, after posting four consecutive season of 200+ strikeouts from 2009 - 2012 Gallardo hasn't reached 150 punch outs in any of the last three season in which he has pitched at least 180 innings respectively. Also of note, Yovani only completed six innings or more in 13 of his 33 game starts during the 2015 campaign.


JAIME GARCIA: STL  20 GS  10-6  129.2 IP  97 K  2.43 ERA  3.00 FIP  3.36 xFIP  1.05 WHIP  19.0 K%  13.1 K-BB%  61.2 GB%


Garcia pitched great for the Cardinals when healthy this past season. St.Louis picked up his option and with Lynn out for the season, Jaime will be called upon to step up but can he?


  • 2010  163.1 IP
  • 2011  194.2 IP
  • 2012  121.2 IP
  • 2013   55.1 IP
  • 2014   43.2 IP
  • 2015  129.2 IP


MATT GARZA: MIL  25 GS  6-14  148.2 IP  104 K  5.63 ERA  4.94 FIP  4.50 xFIP  1.57 WHIP  15.6 K%  7.1 K-BB%  45.0 GB%


​The angry one's game has continued on it's downward spiral. The soon to be 32 year old has recorded one season of a sub 3.50 ERA over his career but even more glaring is his plummeting strikeout rate combined with a climbing walk rate. His upside is a mid to high 3's ERA pitcher and his downside is a repeat of 2015, gambling on Garza is a very risky proposition. 

KEVIN GAUSMAN: BAL  17 GS  4-7  112.1 IP  103 K  4.25 ERA  4.10 FIP  3.80 xFIP  1.23 WHIP  21.9 K%  15.7 K-BB%  44.7 GB%


​Gausman the great? CTM is still buying this talent and believes the best is yet come, KG has made 42 GS over the last three seasons. The future ace of the Orioles will turn twenty-five this January.


  • 2013  20 G    5 GS
  • 2014  20 G  20 GS
  • 2015  25 G   17 GS


KYLE GIBSON: MIN  32 GS  11-11  194.2 IP  145 K  3.84 ERA  3.96 FIP  3.95 xFIP  1.29 WHIP  17.7 K%  9.7 K-BB%  53.4 GB%


Meh, is the best description of Gibson and his game. This Twins pitcher offers limited upside, if any and comes equipped with his share of downside.


 CTM's early forecast for 2016:  189 IP  10-11  133 K  4.13 ERA  1.34 WHIP


GIO GONZALEZ: WAS  31 GS  11-8  175.2 IP  169 K  3.79 ERA  3.05 FIP  3.59 xFIP  1.42 WHIP  22.3 K%  13.2 K-BB%  53.8 GB%


​Gio is a complex case study that will be examined extensively in the 2016 SPI.


MIGUEL GONZALEZ: BAL  26 GS  9-12  144.2 IP  109 K  4.91 ERA  5.01 FIP  4.48 xFIP  1.40 WHIP  17.5 K%  9.3 K-BB%  40.3 GB%


​Miguel's past three seasons indicated last season's ERA was on the horizon.


  • 2012  18 G  15 GS  105.1 IP  9-4  3.25 ERA  4.38 FIP  4.63 xFIP​


  • 2013  30 G 28 GS  171.1 IP  11-8  3.78 ERA  4.45FIP  4.31 xFIP 


  • 2014  27 G 26 GS  159.0 IP  10-9  3.23 ERA  4.89 FIP  4.46 xFIP


KENDALL GRAVEMAN: OAK  21 GS  6-9  115.2 IP  77 K  4.05 ERA  4.60 FIP  4.30 xFIP  1.42 WHIP  15.3 K%  7.8 K-BB%  50.0 GB%


​There are three statistics that jump off the page with regards to Graveman's game in 2015, (1) 5.99 K/9, (2) 50.0 GB% and (3) 13.9 HR/FB

SONNY GRAY: OAK  31 GS  14-7  208.0 IP  169 K  2.73 ERA  3.45 FIP  3.69 xFIP  1.08 WHIP  20.3 K%  13.2 K-BB%  52.7 GB%


Is Sonny Gray a fantasy ace?​​


ZACK GREINKE: LAD  32 GS  19-3  222.2 IP  200 K  1.66 ERA  2.76 FIP  3.22 xFIP  0.84 WHIP  23.7 K%  19.0 K-BB%  48.0 GB%


Greinke's greatness in the City of Angels can not be understated, his three year run is beyond impressive and only over shadowed by Kershaw's brilliance.


Zack allowed 1 run or less in 21 of his 31 GS and never had an ERA higher than 1.97 during the course of the 2015 season.


Update: Greinke signs with the Arizona Diamondbacks for 6 years & $206M.


JESSE HAHN: OAK  16 GS  6-6  96.2 IP  64 K  3.35 ERA  3.51 FIP  3.90 xFIP  1.17 WHIP  15.8 K%  9.6 K-BB%  52.6 GB%


Can Hahn hold up to the rigors of being in a rotation? He did begin a throwing program before last seasons culmination but remains a risky proposition going forward.


COLE HAMELS: PHI-TEX  32 GS  13-8  212.1 IP  215 K  3.65 ERA  3.47 FIP  3.40 xFIP  1.19 WHIP  24.4 K%  17.4 K-BB%  47.7 GB%


CTM has long been resolute in his support for Mister Hamels and will proclaim his 2016 outlook for this venerable veteran in the forthcoming SPI.​


  • 2013  3.60 ERA  3.26 FIP  3.44 xFIP  22.3 K%  16.8 K-BB%  .295 BABIP  72.5 LOB%  42.7 GB%  9.1 HR/FB%  FBV 91.2


  • 2014  2.46 ERA  3.07 FIP  3.21 xFIP  23.9 K%  16.8 K-BB%  .295 BABIP  81.9 LOB%  46.4 GB%  8.2 HR/FB%  FBV 92.3


  • ​2015  3.65 ERA  3.47 FIP  3.40 xFIP  24.4 K%  17.4 K-BB%  .294 BABIP  75.3 LOB%  47.7 GB%  12.0 HR/FB%  FBV 92.6

JASON HAMMEL: CHC  31 GS  10-7  170.2 IP  172 K  3.74 ERA  3.68 FIP  3.47 xFIP  1.02 WHIP  24.9 K%  20.0 K-BB%  46.0 GB%


PRE-ASB:  17 GS  5-4  103.2 IP  105 K  2.86 ERA  3.12 FIP  3.28 xFIP  0.95 WHIP  25.6 K%  21.2 K-BB%  .254 BABIP  72.8 LOB%  37.7 GB%  10.2 HR/FB

POST-ASB:  14 GS  5-3  67.0 IP  67 K  5.10 ERA  4.54 FIP  3.77 xFIP  1.49 WHIP  22.3 K%  15.0 K-BB%  .335 BABIP  72.8 LOB%  39.0 GB%  16.9 HR/FB    

JA HAPP: SEA-PIT  31 GS  11-8  172.0 IP  151 K  3.61 ERA  3.41 FIP  3.69 xFIP  1.27 WHIP  21.1 K%  14.8 K-BB%  46.0 GB%


Happ is currently a free agent and a return to Pittsburgh would be optimal. His time with the Pirates was a perfect storm in a small sample size but PNC suits JA's game and it's deficiencies.


Pirates:  11 GS  7-2  63.1 IP  69 K  1.85 ERA  2.19 FIP  2.90 xFIP  1.03 WHIP  27.7 K%  22.5 K-BB%  .299 BABIP  85.5 LOB%  40.4 GB%  5.3 HR/FB


Update: Happ has signed a three year contract with the Toronto Blue Jays for $36M on November 27th.


 CTM's early forecast for 2016:  172 IP  11-9  149 K  3.97 ERA  1.30 WHIP *12/13/15


AARON HARANGATL  29 GS  6-15  172.1 IP  108 K  4.86 ERA  4.83 FIP  4.99 xFIP  1.39 WHIP  14.4 K%  7.6 K-BB%  36.1 GB%


Nothing to see here, Harang was an innings eater on a bad team.

MATT HARVEY: NYM  29 GS  13-8  189.1 IP  188 K  2.71 ERA  3.05 FIP  3.24 xFIP  1.02 WHIP  24.9 K%  20.0 K-BB%  41.6 GB%


The Dark Knight Rises.


ANDREW HEANEY: LAA  18 GS  6-4  105.2 IP  78 K  3.49 ERA  3.73 FIP  4.41 xFIP  1.20 WHIP  17.8 K%  11.4 K-BB%  38.3 GB%


Heaney logged 184.0 IP in his inaugural season with the Halos between Triple A and the Majors.


6/24 - 8/12:  9 GS  5-1  57.0 IP  40 K  2.53 ERA  3.50 FIP  4.07 xFIP  1.04 WHIP  17.7 K%  13.7 K-BB%  .266 BABIP  83.6 LOB%  40.2 GB%  7.6 HR/FB

8/17 - 10/1:  9 GS  1-3  48.2 IP  38 K  4.62 ERA  4.00 FIP  4.81 xFIP  1.40 WHIP  17.9 K%  9.0 K-BB%  .304 BABIP  70.3 LOB%  36.0 GB%  6.5 HR/FB    

JEREMY HELLICKSON: ARI  27 GS  9-12  146.0 IP  121 K  4.62 ERA  4.44 FIP  4.16 xFIP  1.33 WHIP  19.0 K%  12.3 K-BB%  42.4 GB%


​Philadelphia freedom? Hellickson will be inserted into the revised Phillies rotation after being acquired from the Diamondbacks. A possible deep sleeper in 2016? 

KYLE HENDRICKS: CHC  32 GS  8-7  180.0 IP  167 K  3.95 ERA  3.36 FIP  3.25 xFIP  1.16 WHIP  22.6 K%  16.8 K-BB%  51.3 GB%


​The curious case of Kyle Hendricks? 


In his brief MLB career that has spanned 45 GS, he is the owner of some interesting home versus road splits.


Home 2014:  40.2 IP  22 K  1.99 ERA  3.21 FIP  3.69 xFIP  1.20 WHIP  13.5 K%  10.4 K-BB%  .318 BABIP  87.1 LOB%  51.2 GB%  5.4 HR/FB


Away 2014:  39.2 IP  25 K  2.95 ERA  3.43 FIP  4.15 xFIP  0.96 WHIP  15.8 K%  9.5 K-BB%  .219 BABIP  67.2 LOB% 44.1 GB%  4.5 HR/FB

Home 2015:  85.1 IP  86 K  3.38 ERA  3.22 FIP  2.95 xFIP  1.08 WHIP  25.1 K%  18.9 K-BB%  .281 BABIP  75.5 LOB%  54.2 GB%  14.5 HR/FB

Away 2015:  94.2 IP  81 K  4.47 ERA  3.48 FIP  3.53 xFIP  1.24 WHIP  20.5 K%  14.9 K-BB%  .307 BABIP  65.5 LOB%  48.9 GB%  11.0 HR/FB    

FELIX HERNANDEZ: SEA  31 GS  18-9  201.2 IP  191 K  3.53 ERA  3.72 FIP  3.33 xFIP  1.18 WHIP  23.1 K%  16.1 K-BB%  56.2 GB%


The King's reign in 2015 registered substandard results considering his lofty expectations. Felix will turn thirty years old in April and has logged 2262.1 IP over his illustrious career. The conundrum one must solve for the 2016 season, is King Felix still a blue chip commodity or an elite pitcher on the decline? CTM will provide answers in the 2016 SPI

CHRIS HESTON: SFG  31 GS  12-11  177.2 IP  141 K  3.95 ERA  4.02 FIP  3.98 xFIP  1.31 WHIP  18.9 K%  10.3 K-BB%  53.0 GB%


Heston's 2015 resume has two complete games, a no-hitter with 11 strikeouts @ Citi Field versus the Mets on June 9th and a two-hitter with 10 strikeouts @ Minute Maid Park versus the Astros on May 12th. That said, who is Heston and what will his game evolve into?


RICH HILL: BOS  4 GS  2-1  29.0 IP  36 K  1.55 ERA  2.27 FIP  2.50 xFIP  0.66 WHIP  34.0 K%  29.2 K-BB%  48.4 GB%


This thirty-five year old pitcher turned four game starts late last season into $6M. That is a sweet return on investment, $1.5 per game start. Hill signing with Oakland and pitching in the vast real estate of O.co Coliseum seems like a low risk upside play considering the cost involved.


DEREK HOLLAND: TEX  10 GS  4-3  58.2 IP  41 K  4.91 ERA  5.30 FIP  4.45 xFIP  1.30 WHIP  16.7 K%  9.8 K-BB%  41.9 GB%


A healthy Holland sounds like an oxymoron after his last two seasons.  


  • 2011  198.0  IP
  • 2012  175.1  IP
  • 2013  213.0 IP
  • 2014  37.0 IP
  • 2015  58.2 IP


PHIL HUGHES: MIN  25 GS  11-9  155.1 IP  94 K  4.40 ERA  4.70 FIP  4.31 xFIP  1.29 WHIP  14.4 K%  12.0 K-BB%  35.3 GB%


Good Hughes hunting, chasing his 2014 season could be a losing proposition.


  • 2014:  32 GS  16-10  209.2 IP  186 K  3.52 ERA  2.65 FIP  3.18 xFIP  1.13 WHIP  21.8 K%  19.9 K-BB%  .324 BABIP  70.1 LOB%  36.5 GB%  6.2 HR/FB


  • 2015:  25 GS  11-9  155.1 IP  94 K  4.40 ERA  4.70 FIP  4.31 xFIP  1.29 WHIP  14.4 K%  12.0 K-BB%  .304 BABIP  78.1 LOB%  35.3 GB%  13.5 HR/FB


 CTM's early forecast for 2016:  193 IP  11-11  142 K  3.94 ERA  1.21 WHIP


DREW HUTCHISON: TOR  28 GS  13-5  150.1 IP  129 K  5.57 ERA  4.42 FIP  4.21 xFIP  1.48 WHIP  19.4 K%  12.8 K-BB%  39.6 GB%


​Simply stated, Hutch was horrific and CTM is still traumatized from owning him​ in 2015.

RAISEL IGLESIAS: CIN  16 GS  3-7  95.1 IP  104 K  4.15 ERA  3.55 FIP  3.28 xFIP  1.14 WHIP  26.3 K%  19.2 K-BB%  47.2 GB%


It was a lost season in the Queen City but the silver lining was the rise of Raisel. CTM will own a significant number of shares and is going all-in on Iglesias.


HISASHI IWAKUMA: SEA  20 GS  9-5  129.2 IP  111 K  3.54 ERA  3.74 FIP  3.27 xFIP  1.06 WHIP  21.5 K%  17.4 K-BB%  50.4 GB%


The old man and the Seattle Mariners, Hisashi turns thirty-five this April but will he re-up with the Mariners or find a new home via free agency?


Iwakuma's performance over his last 16 GS of 2015, July 11th - October 2nd. 


The Sweet 16:  108.1 IP  9-4  97 K  2.82 ERA  2.95 FIP  3.11 xFIP  0.99 WHIP  22.9 K%  18.6 K-BB% .268 BABIP  76.5 LOB%  52.1 GB%  9.9 HR/FB


Update: Iwakuma signed with the Dodgers for 3 years and $45M on December 6th.  

UBALDO JIMENEZ: BAL  32 GS  12-10  184.0 IP  168 K  4.11 ERA  4.01 FIP  3.83 xFIP  1.36 WHIP  21.2 K%  12.6 K-BB%  49.1 GB%


​Ubaldo parlayed his 2013 bounce back season with Cleveland into a very profitable four year $50M contract. Unfortunately, the Orioles made a desperate signing and not surprisingly Jimenez has returned to his ineffective and maddening ways over the past two seasons in Baltimore.


TAYLOR JUNGMANN: MIL  21 GS  9-8  119.1 IP  107 K  3.77 ERA  3.92 FIP  4.10 xFIP  1.28 WHIP  21.4 K%  12.0 K-BB%  46.3 GB%


PRE-ASB:  7 GS  4-1  46 IP  34 H  12 BB  34 K  2.15 ERA  3.33 FIP  3.95 xFIP  1.00 WHIP  .252 BABIP  80.9 LOB%  55.5 GB%  5.4 HR/FB   


POST-ASB:  14 GS  5-7  73.1 IP  72 H  35 BB  73 K  4.79 ERA  4.29 FIP  4.19 xFIP  1.46 WHIP  .313 BABIP  68.8 LOB%  40.6 GB%  12.2 HR/FB  

NATE KARNS: TBR  26 GS  7-5  147.0 IP  145 K  3.67 ERA  4.09 FIP  3.90 xFIP  1.28 WHIP  23.4 K%  14.3 K-BB%  41.9 GB%


After a successful 2015 campaign, Tampa Bay dealt Karns to Seattle as part of a six player deal. 

SCOTT KAZMIR: OAK-HOU  31 GS  7-11  183.0 IP  155 K  3.10 ERA  3.98 FIP  4.14 xFIP  1.21 WHIP  20.3 K%  12.6 K-BB%  42.9 GB%


Kazmir imploded down the stretch for Houston and enters free agency with many questions, CTM will provide answers in the 2016 SPI.

JOE KELLY: BOS  25 GS  10-6  134.1 IP  110 K  4.82 ERA  4.18 FIP  4.08 xFIP  1.44 WHIP  18.8 K%  10.4 K-BB%  45.6 GB%


Surprisingly, Joe Kelly didn't win the American League CYA in 2015 but is an intriguing arm with upside if he can improve versus RHB and remain in the rotation.


IAN KENNEDY: SDP  30 GS  9-15  168.1 IP  174 K  4.28 ERA  4.51 FIP  3.70 xFIP  1.30 WHIP  24.4 K%  17.1 K-BB%  38.5 GB%


  • 2011  33 GS  21-4  222.0 IP  198 K  2.88 ERA
  • 2012  33 GS  15-12  208.1 IP  187 K  4.02 ERA
  • 2013  31 GS  7-10  181.1 IP  163 K  4.91 ERA
  • 2014  33 GS  13-13  201.0 IP  207 K  3.63 ERA
  • 2015  30 GS  9-15  168.1 IP  174 K  4.28 ERA 


CLAYTON KERSHAW: LAD  33 GS  16-7  232.2 IP  301 K  2.13 ERA  1.99 FIP  2.09 xFIP  0.88 WHIP  33.8 K%  29.1 K-BB%  50.0 GB%


Kershaw Is Legend.


DALLAS KEUCHEL: HOU  33 GS  20-8  232.0 IP  216 K  2.48 ERA  2.91 FIP  2.75 xFIP  1.02 WHIP  23.7 K%  18.1 K-BB%  61.7 GB%


The 2015 American League Cy Young Award winner.


COREY KLUBER: CLE  32 GS  13-8  222.0 IP  245 K  3.49 ERA  2.97 FIP  3.05 xFIP  1.05 WHIP  27.7 K%  22.6 K-BB%  42.4 GB%


​Kluber is a stud starting pitcher and a secure investment when constructing your rotation.


TOM KOEHLER: MIA  31 GS  11-14  187.1 IP  137 K  4.08 ERA  4.53 FIP  4.58 xFIP  1.37 WHIP  17.1 K%  7.5 K-BB%  46.0 GB%


Koehler led Miami in strikeouts, highlighting a horrendous season by Marlins starting pitchers not named Jose Fernandez.

JOHN LACKEY: STL  33 GS  13-10  218.0 IP  175 K  2.77 ERA  3.57 FIP  3.77 xFIP  1.21 WHIP  19.5 K%  13.6 K-BB%  46.0 GB%


CTM advised last year to use Lackey's 2013 & 2014 average as your guide and believes that is sound advice for the 2016 season.


Update: Lackey signed with the Cubs for 2 years and $32M on December 4th .

 

JOHN LAMB: CIN  10 GS  1-5  49.2 IP  58 K  5.80 ERA  4.16 FIP  3.73 xFIP  1.55 WHIP  26.4 K%  17.7 K-BB%  37.7 GB%


​Once a top prospect with the Royals prior to TJS, Lamb was part of the trio of arms Kansas City sent to Cincinnati in the Cueto trade. 

MIKE LEAKE: CIN-SFG  30 GS  11-10  192.0 IP  119 K  3.70 ERA  4.20 FIP  3.93 xFIP  1.16 WHIP  15.3 K%  9.0 K-BB%  51.8 GB%


  • ​2013  192.1 IP  3.37 ERA
  • 2014  214.1 IP  3.70 ERA
  • 2015  192.0 IP  3.70 ERA


JON LESTER: CHC  32 GS  11-12  205.0 IP  207 K  3.34 ERA  2.92 FIP  3.06 xFIP  1.12 WHIP  25.0 K%  19.3 K-BB%  48.9 GB%


​POST-ASB:  14 GS  7-4  94.2 IP  98 K  74 H  17 BB  6 HR  3.04 ERA  2.58 FIP  2.82 xFIP  0.96 WHIP  26.9 K%  22.3 K-BB%  50.4 GB%


Big Jon isn't the ace of the Cubs but a high-end No.2 behind the awesomeness of Arrieta.


COLBY LEWIS: TEX  33 GS  17-9  204.2 IP  142 K  4.66 ERA  4.17 FIP  4.62 xFIP  1.24 WHIP  16.5 K%  11.6 K-BB%  33.7 GB%


If Colby makes it into your rotation then something has gone terribly wrong.


TIM LINCECUM: SFG  15 GS  7-4  76.1 IP  60 K  4.13 ERA  4.29 FIP  4.64 xFIP  1.48 WHIP  18.0 K%  6.6 K-BB%  44.3 GB%


Timmy is one of only two active multiple Cy Young Award winners.


FRANCISCO LIRIANO: PIT  31 GS  12-7  186.2 IP  205 K  3.38 ERA  3.19 FIP  3.16 xFIP  1.21 WHIP  26.5 K%  17.5 K-BB%  51.2 GB%


Liriano's three seasons in Pittsburgh


  • 2013  26 GS  16-8  161.0 IP  163 K  3.02 ERA
  • 2014  29 GS  7-10  162.1 IP  175 K  3.38 ERA
  • 2015  31 GS  12-7  186.2 IP  205 K  3.38 ERA


JEFF LOCKE: PIT  30 GS  8-11  168.1 IP  129 K  4.49 ERA  3.95 FIP  3.94 xFIP  1.42 WHIP  17.5 K%  9.4 K-BB%  51.0 GB%


The last two seasons 2013 & 2014 indicated that Locke wasn't a sub-four ERA pitcher and that was proved true in 2015.

LANCE LYNN: STL  31 GS  12-11  175.1 IP  167 K  3.03 ERA  3.44 FIP  3.90 xFIP  1.37 WHIP  22.2 K%  13.2 K-BB%  44.2 GB%


Lynn will miss the 2016 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery on November 10th.


CARLOS MARTINEZ: STL  29 GS  14-7  179.2 IP  184 K  3.01 ERA  3.21 FIP  3.28 xFIP  1.29 WHIP  24.4 K%  16.0 K-BB%  54.5 GB%


After early season struggles, Martinez shined from mid May until his late September shutdown with a shoulder strain. Carlos is the very definition on a growth stock.


May 15th - Sept 25th:  23 GS  11-6  144.2 IP  149 K  135 H  45 BB  7 HR  2.55 ERA  2.80 FIP  3.18 xFIP  1.24 WHIP  24.6 K%  17.2 K-BB%  55.8 GB%  .323 BABIP  79.7 LOB%


NICK MARTINEZ: TEX  21 GS  7-7  125.0 IP  77 K  3.96 ERA  4.98 FIP  4.99 xFIP  1.45 WHIP  13.8 K%  5.6 K-BB%  42.3 GB%


The regression police came calling and apprehended their man in Martinez.

STEVEN MATZ: NYM  6 GS  4-0  35.2 IP  34 K  2.27 ERA  3.61 FIP  3.56 xFIP  1.23 WHIP  22.8 K%  16.1 K-BB%  45.5 GB%


​The left-handed compliment and final piece to the four horsemen in flushing.


LANCE MCCULLERS: HOU  22 GS  6-7  125.2 IP  129 K  3.22 ERA  3.26 FIP  3.50 xFIP  1.19 WHIP  24.8 K%  16.5 K-BB%  46.5 GB%


An impressive debut last year has fueled increased expectations entering the 2016 season.


​COLLIN MCHUGH: HOU  32 GS  19-7  203.2 IP  171 K  3.89 ERA  3.58 FIP  3.91 xFIP  1.28 WHIP  19.9 K%  13.7 K-BB%  45.4 GB%


Trouble with the curve, McHugh's evolution as starting pitcher has culminated into a surprising success story.  


KRIS MEDLEN: KCR  8 GS  6-2  58.1 IP  40 K  4.01 ERA  4.13 FIP  4.31 xFIP  1.27 WHIP  16.5 K%  9.0 K-BB%  49.7 GB%


The Royals were diligent with Medlen's maintenance in 2015 but is this the year he returns to pre-TJS form?


WADE MILEY: BOS  32 GS  11-11  193.2 IP  147 K  4.46 ERA  3.81 FIP  4.08 xFIP  1.37 WHIP  17.7 K%  10.0 K-BB%  48.8 GB%


An innings eater without much upside is not an exciting option.


Update: Miley was traded to the Seattle Mariners on December 7th.

SHELBY MILLER: ATL  33 GS  6-17  205.1 IP  171 K  3.02 ERA  3.45 FIP  4.07 xFIP  1.25 WHIP  19.9 K%  11.4 K-BB%  47.7 GB%


Shelby surged in Atlanta last season but what are Miller's fortunes going forward? Are you buying or selling high on his 2015 performance.


Update: Shelby was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks on December 8th.


TOMMY MILONE: MIN  23 GS  9-5  128.2 IP  91 K  3.92 ERA  4.30 FIP  4.22 xFIP  1.27 WHIP  16.8 K%  10.1 K-BB%  41.6 GB%


Tommy " Mayday" Milone.


CHARLIE MORTON: PIT  23 GS  9-9  129.0 IP  96 K  4.81 ERA  4.19 FIP  3.87 xFIP  1.38 WHIP  17.1 K%  9.8 K-BB%  57.3 GB%


Charlie was on cruise control over his first five starts but that all ended on June 21st.


May 25th - June 16th:  5 GS  1.62 ERA  3.34 FIP  3.53 xFIP


June 21st - Sept 30th:  18 GS  5.93 ERA  4.48 FIP  3.99 xFIP


JIMMY NELSON: MIL  30 GS  11-13  177.1 IP  148 K  4.11 ERA  4.10 FIP  4.06 xFIP  1.29 WHIP  19.7 K%  11.0 K-BB%  50.6 GB%


A back of the rotation arm with room for growth if certain corrections are made.


JON NIESE: NYM  29 GS  9-10  176.2 IP  113 K  4.13 ERA  4.41 FIP  4.11 xFIP  1.40 WHIP  14.7 K%  7.5 K-BB%  54.5 GB%


Niese's inability to miss bats reached new heights last season as his already inferior strikeout rate plummeted further 5.76 K/9 and coupled with 14.3% HR/FB​ was an explosive combination.


Update: Niese was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Neil Walker on December 9th.

AARON NOLA: PHI  13 GS  6-2  77.2 IP  68 K  3.59 ERA  4.04 FIP  3.58 xFIP  1.20 WHIP  21.4 K%  15.4 K-BB%  47.6 GB%


The days of Halladay, Hamels and Lee are distant memories and Nola is now the future in Philadelphia.


DANIEL NORRIS: TOR-DET  13 GS  3-2  60.0 IP  45 K  3.75 ERA  4.63 FIP  4.63 xFIP  1.20 WHIP  17.9 K%  10.4 K-BB%  39.9 GB%


This talented and eccentric young starting pitcher is cancer-free.


IVAN NOVA: NYY  17 GS  6-11  94.0 IP  63 K  5.07 ERA  4.87 FIP  4.59 xFIP  1.40 WHIP  15.3 K%  7.3 K-BB%  49.0 GB%


Nova in spanish means ​no go and in 2015 it meant no good.


JAKE ODORIZZI: TBR  28 GS  13-8  169.1 IP  150 K  3.35 ERA  3.61 FIP  3.96 xFIP  1.15 WHIP  21.4 K%  14.9 K-BB%  37.3 GB%


Jake transformed his game last season and delivered a damn good dozen starts before an oblique injury shelved him for a month. Upon his return, Odorizzi reverted back to his 2014 pitching persona.


April 8th - Jun 5th: 12 GS  76.2 IP  63 K  63 H  15 BB  5 HR  2.47 ERA  3.00 FIP  3.77 xFIP  1.02 WHIP  20.5 K%  15.6 K-BB%  40.7 GB%  .260 BABIP  79.5 LOB%  6.0 HR/FB


July 11th - Oct 1st:  16 GS  92.2 IP  87 K  86 H  31 BB  13 HR  4.08 ERA  4.12 FIP  4.12 xFIP  1.24 WHIP  24.6 K%  17.2 K-BB%  34.5 GB%  .281 BABIP  75.2 LOB%  11.3 HR/FB

HENRY OWENS: BOS  11 GS  4-4  63.0 IP  50 K  4.57 ERA  4.28 FIP  5.01 xFIP  1.37 WHIP  18.4 K%  9.6 K-BB%  34.7 GB%


Owens received the call last summer in a lost season for Boston but probably needs to marinate in the minors a little longer. 


JAMES PAXTON: SEA  13 GS  3-4  67.0 IP  56 K  3.90 ERA  4.31 FIP  4.35 xFIP  1.43 WHIP  18.9 K%  9.1 K-BB%  48.3 GB%


​Ugh. Paxton was disappointing prior to his hand injury that all but wiped out his season. Seattle sent him to the Arizona Fall League to get some work in and iron out issues.

JAKE PEAVY: SFG  19 GS  8-6  110.2 IP  78 K  3.58 ERA  3.87 FIP  4.47 xFIP  1.12 WHIP  17.4 K%  11.8 K-BB%  37.6 GB%


​Jake's season didn't really start until July, due to a back strain that limited him to two starts in April. Peavy pitched very well over 17 game starts once activated from the disabled list .


WILY PERALTA: MIL  20 GS  5-10  108.2 IP  60 K  4.72 ERA  4.84 FIP  4.57 xFIP  1.54 WHIP  12.6 K%  4.8 K-BB%  51.6 GB%


​The promise Peralta offered as deep sleeper entering last season soured significantly. Here is a look at his numbers pre and post injury. 


April 8th - May 22nd: 9 GS  54.0 IP  35 K  63 H  14 BB  8 HR  4.00 ERA  4.65 FIP  4.07 xFIP  1.43 WHIP  15.2 K%  9.1 K-BB%  53.7 GB%  .320 BABIP  79.7 LOB%  16.3 HR/FB

July 28th - Sept 21st:  
11 GS  54.2 IP  25 K  67 H  23 BB  6 HR  5.43 ERA  5.02 FIP  5.08 xFIP  1.65 WHIP  10.1 K%  0.8 K-BB%  49.7 GB%  .319 BABIP  68.2 LOB%  10.9 HR/FB

MIKE PELFEY: MIN  30 GS  6-11  164.2 IP  86 K  4.26 ERA  4.00 FIP  4.45 xFIP  1.48 WHIP  12.0 K%  5.7 K-BB%  51.0 GB%


The man called Big Pelf signed with the Detroit Tigers for two years and $16M.

MARTIN PEREZ: TEX  14 GS  3-6  78.2 IP  48 K  4.46 ERA  3.40 FIP  3.99 xFIP  1.42 WHIP  14.2 K%  7.1 K-BB%  59.9 GB%


Perez returned from TJS last season and his strikeout continued it's downward descent to obscenely low levels but his ground ball rate registered among the elite.  


MICHAEL PINEDA: NYY  27 GS  12-10  160.2 IP  156 K  4.37 ERA  3.34 FIP  2.95 xFIP  1.23 WHIP  23.4 K%  20.2 K-BB%  48.2 GB%


The big nasty pitched much better then his surface stats indicated.


RICK PORCELLO: BOS  28 GS  9-15  172.0 IP  149 K  4.92 ERA  4.13 FIP  3.72 xFIP  1.36 WHIP  20.2 K%  15.1 K-BB%  45.7 GB%


April 8th - Jun 5th: 20 GS  114.2 IP  92 K  138 H  27 BB  20 HR  5.81 ERA  4.71 FIP  4.11 xFIP  1.44 WHIP  18.3 K%  13.0 K-BB%  43.2 GB%  .332 BABIP  66.2 LOB%  15.5 HR/FB


Aug 26th - Oct 4th:  8 GS  57.1 IP  57 K  58 H  11 BB  5 HR  3.14 ERA  2.96 FIP  2.96 xFIP  1.20 WHIP  24.3 K%  19.6 K-BB%  51.2 GB%  .331 BABIP  70.3 LOB%  11.4 HR/FB

DAVID PRICE: DET-TOR  32 GS  18-5  220.1 IP  225 K  2.45 ERA  2.78 FIP  3.24 xFIP  1.08 WHIP  25.3 K%  20.0 K-BB%  40.4 GB%


The Red Sox bought their ace as Price signed with Boston for $217M.


JOSE QUINTANA: CHW  32 GS  9-10  206.1 IP  177 K  3.36 ERA  3.18 FIP  3.51 xFIP  1.27 WHIP  20.5 K%  15.4 K-BB%  47.1 GB%


Consistently good.


ERASMO RAMIREZ: TBR  27 GS  11-6  163.1 IP  126 K  3.75 ERA  3.76 FIP  3.88 xFIP  1.13 WHIP  18.9 K%  12.9 K-BB%  47.8 GB%


CTM had written off Erasmo entering last season and early on that seemed like the prudent course of action.


April 10th @ Mia: 0 GS  2.0 IP  6 H  7 R  7 ER  0 HR  3 BB  2 K


April 15th @ Tor:  1 GS  3.1 IP  9 H  9 R  8 ER  1 HR  3 BB  4 K

GARRETT RICHARDS: LAA  32 GS  15-12  207.1 IP  176 K  3.65 ERA  3.86 FIP  3.80 xFIP  1.24 WHIP  20.4 K%  11.6 K-BB%  54.9 GB%


This Halo's hurler will enter spring training completely healthy and coming off his first 200 innings plus season.


TANNER ROARK: WAS  12 GS  4-7  111.0 IP  70 K  4.38 ERA  4.70 FIP  4.17 xFIP  1.31 WHIP  15.0 K%  9.4 K-BB%  47.8 GB%


CTM has never owned Tanner and expects that trend to continue in 2016.

CARLOS RODON: CHW  23 GS  9-6  139.1 IP  139 K  3.75 ERA  3.87 FIP  4.03 xFIP  1.44 WHIP  22.9 K%  11.2 K-BB%  46.8 GB%


The third overall pick in the 2014 June Amateur Draft has logged a total of 34.2 minor league innings versus 139.1 major league innings.  


EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ: BOS  21 GS  10-6  121.2 IP  98 K  3.85 ERA  3.92 FIP  4.05 xFIP  1.29 WHIP  18.8 K%  11.7 K-BB%  43.0 GB%


Rodriguez offers upside for the Red Sox rotation and with refinements to his repertoire, an intriguing arm going forward.


JOE ROSS: WAS  13 GS  5-5  76.2 IP  69 K  3.64 ERA  3.42 FIP  3.62 xFIP  1.11 WHIP  22.0 K%  15.3 K-BB%  49.8 GB%


​Are you ready for the Joe Ross experience in 2016? Tyson's younger brother will be a highly sought after commodity this draft season.


TYSON ROSS: SDP  33 GS  10-12  196.0 IP  212 K  3.26 ERA  2.98 FIP  3.15 xFIP  1.31 WHIP  25.8 K%  15.6 K-BB%  61.5 GB%


  • 2014  195.2 IP  2.81 ERA  3.24 FIP  3.11 xFIP  24.0 K%  57 GB%

  • 2015  196.0 IP  3.26 ERA  2.98 FIP  3.15 xFIP  25.8 K%  61.5 GB%


HYUN-JIN RYU​LAD


Ryu is returning for shoulder surgery but reports are that he will be ready for spring training.


CC SABATHIA: NYY  29 GS  8-10  167.1 IP  137 K  4.73 ERA  4.68 FIP  3.99 xFIP  1.42 WHIP  18.9 K%  12.0 K-BB%  45.9 GB%


Sabathia was the very definition of a workhorse but they shoot horses don't they?


DANNY SALAZAR: CLE  30 GS  14-10  185.0 IP  195 K  3.45 ERA  3.62 FIP  3.48 xFIP  1.13 WHIP  25.8 K%  18.8 K-BB%  43.9 GB%


This growth stock screams buy!


CHRIS SALE: CHW  31 GS  13-11  208.2 IP  274 K  3.41 ERA  2.73 FIP  2.60 xFIP  1.09 WHIP  32.1 K%  27.2 K-BB%  42.6 GB%


CTM remains resolute that Sale is the second best starting pitcher in Major League Baseball.


JEFF SAMARDZIJA: CHW  32 GS  11-13  214.0 IP  163 K  4.96 ERA  4.23 FIP  4.31 xFIP  1.29 WHIP  17.9 K%  12.5 K-BB%  39.0 GB%


Shark signs with San Francisco for 5 years and $90M on December 5th.


AARON SANCHEZ: TOR  11 GS  7-6  92.1 IP  61 K  3.22 ERA  4.61 FIP  4.27 xFIP  1.28 WHIP  16.1 K%  4.5 K-BB%  60.6 GB%


The Blue Jays offseason moves all but guarantee Sanchez will return to the bullpen in 2016.


ANIBAL SANCHEZ: DET  25 GS  10-10  157.0 IP  138 K  4.99 ERA  4.73 FIP  4.03 xFIP  1.28 WHIP  20.9 K%  13.5 K-BB%  40.0 GB%


Two attributes Sanchez has owned throughout his career are talented but often injured. Now on the wrong side of thirty, his future prognosis isn't promising.


ERVIN SANTANA: MIN  17 GS  7-5  108.0 IP  82 K  4.00 ERA  4.17 FIP  4.42 xFIP  1.30 WHIP  17.9 K%  10.1 K-BB%  40.9 GB%


Big Erv was banned for 80 games to start last season but finished strong in 2015.

HECTOR SANTIAGO: LAA  32 GS  9-9  180.2 IP  162 K  3.59 ERA  4.77 FIP  5.00 xFIP  1.26 WHIP  20.9 K%  11.7 K-BB%  29.9 GB%


​Santiago continually out pitches his indicators but ominious signs ahead.


MAX SCHERZER: WAS  33 GS  14-12  228.2 IP  276 K  2.79 ERA  2.77 FIP  2.88 xFIP  0.92 WHIP  30.7 K%  26.9 K-BB%  36.0 GB%


Scherzer has cemented himself among the ELITE starting pitches in the game.


3 year average: 2013-2015  33 GS  18-7  221 IP  256 K  2.93 ERA  1.02 WHIP 


LUIS SEVERINO: NYY  11 GS  5-3  62.1 IP  56 K  2.89 ERA  4.37 FIP  3.72 xFIP  1.02 WHIP  22.0 K%  13.3 K-BB%  50.9 GB%


Louie, Louie, Louie, Louie...


JAMES SHIELDS: SDP  33 GS  13-7  202.2 IP  216 K  3.91 ERA  4.45 FIP  3.70 xFIP  1.33 WHIP  25.1 K%  15.7 K-BB%  44.9 GB%


San Diego is reportedly shopping Shields, are you buying?


MATT SHOEMAKER: LAA  24 GS  7-10  135.1 IP  116 K  4.46 ERA  4.59 FIP  4.16 xFIP  1.26 WHIP  20.4 K%  14.2 K-BB%  39.2 GB%


CTM stayed away from Shoemaker last season and isn't excited about his 2016 prospects.

ALFREDO SIMON: DET  31 GS  13-12  187.0 IP  117 K  5.05 ERA  4.77 FIP  4.78 xFIP  1.44 WHIP  14.3 K%  6.0 K-BB%  43.6 GB%


Big Pasta, fantastic nickname but subpar pitcher.


DREW SMYLY: TBR  12 GS  5-2  66.2 IP  77 K  3.11 ERA  3.91 FIP  3.47 xFIP  1.17 WHIP  28.0 K%  20.7 K-BB%  36.8 GB%


Sometimes the talent outweighs the risk.

MARCUS STROMAN: TOR  4 GS  4-0  27.0 IP  18 K  1.67 ERA  3.54 FIP  3.34 xFIP  0.96 WHIP  17.5 K%  11.6 K-BB%  64.1 GB%


CTM was extremely excited for Stroman's 2015 season but injury halted that.


STEPHEN STRASBURG: WAS  23 GS  11-7  127.1 IP  155 K  3.46 ERA  2.81 FIP  2.69 xFIP  1.11 WHIP  29.6 K%  24.7 K-BB%  42.2 GB%


Last season CTM Swung and missed on Strasburg but the process was precise.  


NOAH SYNDERGAARD: NYM  24 GS  9-7  150.0 IP  166 K  3.24 ERA  3.25 FIP  2.91 xFIP  1.05 WHIP  27.5 K%  22.4 K-BB%  46.5 GB%


​THOR.


MASAHIRO TANAKA: NYY  24 GS  12-7  154.0 IP  139 K  3.51 ERA  3.98 FIP  3.29 xFIP  0.99 WHIP  22.8 K%  18.4 K-BB%  47.0 GB5


Risk versus Reward.


JULIO TEHERAN: ATL  33 GS  11-8  200.2 IP  171 K  4.04 ERA  4.40 FIP  4.19 xFIP  1.31 WHIP  20.3 K%  11.6 K-BB%  39.7 GB%


CTM will tackle the Teheran issue in the 2016 SPI?


CHRIS TILLMAN: BAL  31 GS  11-11  173.0 IP  120 K  4.99 ERA  4.45 FIP  4.58 xFIP  1.39 WHIP  16.2 K%  7.5 K-BB%  43.5 GB%


No, thank you.

JOSH TOMLIN: CLE  10 GS  7-2  65.2 IP  57 K  3.02 ERA  4.43 FIP  3.77 xFIP  0.84 WHIP  22.7 K%  19.5 K-BB%   GB%


Tomlin's fantastic late season run, is it fact or fiction?


NICK TROPEANO: LAA  7 GS  3-2  37.2 IP  38 K  3.82 ERA  2.60 FIP  3.64 xFIP  1.33 WHIP  23.6 K%  17.4 K-BB%  38.5 GB%


If Tropeano secures a rotation spot, then CTM fully expects a profitable pitcher in 2016.


VINCENT VELASQUEZ: HOU  7 GS  1-1  55.2 IP  58 K  4.37 ERA  3.46 FIP  4.15 xFIP  1.28 WHIP  25.1 K%  16.0 K-BB%  31.3 GB%

This talented arm immediately strengthens the Phillies fortunes for the future. Velasquez was acquired in the 7 player trade that sent Ken Giles t0 Houston.  


YORDANO VENTURA: KCR  28 GS  13-8  163.1 IP  156 K  4.08 ERA  3.57 FIP  3.60 xFIP  1.30 WHIP  22.5 K%  14.1 K-BB%  52.2 GB%


Remember when Yordano was demoted for a minute? Fear factor or not, Ventura shined down the stretch.


JUSTIN VERLANDER: DET  20 GS  5-8  133.1 IP  113 K  3.38 ERA  3.49 FIP  4.15 xFIP  1.09 WHIP  21.1 K%  15.1 K-BB%  34.6 GB%


Is Verlander back?


EDISON VOLQUEZ: KCR  33 GS  13-9  200.1 IP  155 K  3.55 ERA  3.82 FIP  4.26 xFIP  1.31 WHIP  18.2 K%  9.8 K-BB%  46.0 GB%


Edison's last two seasons with Pittsburgh and Kansas City.


2014 & 2015:  64 GS  26-16  393.0 IP  356 H  33 HR  3.30 ERA  3.98 FIP  4.23 xFIP  1.27 WHIP  17.8 K%  9.2 K-BB%  .277 BABIP  75.2 LOB%  48.1 GB%  8.5 HR/FB

MICHAEL WACHA: STL  30 GS  17-7  181.1 IP  153 K  3.38 ERA  3.87 FIP  3.88 xFIP  1.21 WHIP  20.1 K%  12.5 K-BB%  45.8 GB%


Wacha's second half slide could be attributed to his massive innings jump. This talented starting pitcher's perception might discount his price, creating the possibility for greater profit potential.


2013  64.2 IP MLB  +  85.0 IP AAA

2014  107.0 IP MLB  + 2.0 IP AA

2015  181.0 IP MLB


ADAM WAINWRIGHT: STL  4 GS  2-1  28.0 IP  20 K  1.61 ERA  2.13 FIP  3.14 xFIP  1.04 WHIP  18.0 K%  14.4 K-BB%  51.2 GB%


CTM expected a pull back from Wainwright last season but isn't betting against him in 2016.   


TAIJUAN WALKERSEA  29 GS  11-8  169.2 IP  157 K  4.56 ERA  4.07 FIP  3.82 xFIP  1.20 WHIP  22.2 K%  16.6 K-BB%  38.6 GB%


Is 2016 the year it all comes together?

 

ADAM WARREN: NYY  17 GS  7-7  131.1 IP  104 K  3.29 ERA  3.59 FIP  3.96 xFIP  1.16 WHIP  19.5 K%  12.2 K-BB%  45.2 GB%


This utility arm has a higher upside, especially if he locks down a rotation spot.


Update: Warren was traded to the Cubs in the deal that sent Starlin Castro to the Yankees. 


JERED WEAVER: LAA  26 GS  7-12  159.0 IP  90 K  4.64 ERA  4.81 FIP  5.10 xFIP  1.23 WHIP  13.5 K%  8.5 K-BB%  34.4 GB%


Weaver is a warrior who is fighting on fumes.


ZACK WHEELER: NYM


Wheeler is progressing and his next step is throwing off a mound, ETA circa June or July.  


CJ WILSON: LAA  21 GS  8-8  132.0 IP  110 K  3.89 ERA  4.02 FIP  4.24 xFIP  1.24 WHIP  19.9 K%  11.6 K-BB%  43.1 GB%


CJ was shutdown last season when he elected for elbow surgery but Wilson was trending in wrong direction prior to that.


MATT WISLERATL  19 GS  8-8  109.0 IP  72 K  4.71 ERA  4.93 FIP  5.10 xFIP  1.46 WHIP  15.1 K%  6.7 K-BB%  33.6 GB%


Additional seasoning required here but an arm to monitor as opportunities will be plentiful with the 2016 Braves as currently constructed.


ALEX WOOD: ATL-LAD  32 GS  12-12  189.2 IP  139 K  3.84 ERA  3.69 FIP  3.90 xFIP  1.36 WHIP  17.4 K%  10.0 K-BB%  49.5 GB%


When you consider his high expectations, last season was very disappointing. 


CHRIS YOUNG: KCR  18 GS  11-6  123.1 IP  83 K  3.06 ERA  4.52 FIP  5.33 xFIP  1.09 WHIP  16.6 K%  8.0 K-BB%  25.5 GB%


​The Phantom Menace returned in 2015 and has re-upped with Kansas City, signing a two year deal for $11M this offseason.

JORDAN ZIMMERMANN: WAS  33 GS  13-10  201.2 IP  164 K  3.66 ERA  3.75 FIP  3.82 xFIP  1.20 WHIP  19.7 K%  15.1 K-BB%  42.0 GB%


Zimmermann signed with the Detroit Tigers for 5 years and $110M on November 29th.




Statistics: Baseball-Reference & Fangraphs